GEORGE Polya – Hungarian mathematical boffin of historical note – once postulated five patterns of plausibility, each of which, he claimed, told us something about the structure of belief in us humans.
The starting point for these patterns was the fact that, in life, very little is really empirically provable. The world is flat. The world is round. Someone says the electron is the smallest sub-atomic particle. A while later it’s the quark. (Who knows what it is now.)
Nobody really ‘knows’ anything, do they? All you’re left with is a sequence of what were, and are, plausible, workable beliefs. Assumptions about life that we believe will hold true, and that we use to rationalise our place in the world. Patterns of plausibility, some would suggest, are the foundations on which those beliefs are built.
Football’s no different.
In belief terms, until yesterday, I don’t think I was really feeling it myself, not properly. I’d hear Neil Atkinson or Steve Graves say we were gonna win the league, and I’d chuckle, and write it off as a bit of fun. But it’s proving infectious.
Meanwhile, there are Manchester United fans calling into 606 and bursting into tears, bless them. It’s all about belief, and the patterns of plausibility that sustain them.
Pattern 1: Probability
The more often something has happened in the past, the more likely it is that it’ll happen again. Once upon a time there was a phenomenon people referred to as ‘Fergie Time’. Things not going Manchester United’s way? It seemed inevitable that we’d see mounting vice-like injury time pressure, and a decisive change of fortune in his team’s favour at the death.
On some level everyone subscribed to it. Teams defending a result at Old Trafford would retreat almost into their own six-yard box. The phenomenon was plausible, because it seemed probable. But now? Not so much.
Meanwhile, for Liverpool, Spurs away. Day follows night. Spurs away Stoke away Everton home. Day follows night follows day follows night. Spurs away Stoke away Everton home Arsenal home Southampton away… the sun will come out tomorrow. Bet your bottom dollar.
Pattern 2: Effect proves believed cause
Rodgers, early in the new year, said his team were showing “an aggression, charisma and greater confidence and belief in the way we are working.” It’s something he’s said in different ways ever since he arrived at the club. Yesterday, he said “I think the biggest thing in terms of where we’ve come in the past year is belief. We now inherently believe in what we’re doing. We’ve played a number of systems this year but the style stays the same. We want a team of dominance on the ball and aggressiveness in attack.”
He said it even when results weren’t going our way particularly. People questioned the recycling of possession across the back four, and the keeper being called upon to use his feet more than maybe his footballing ability could support. But always the same message. We’re getting more confident in the way we work. We’ve more belief in the way we work. What does it actually mean? It doesn’t matter now. The results on the park provide all the validation needed, to the extent it becomes a self-sustaining positive loop. Rodgers can say to his players, ‘If our results are down to the way we work, what do you think will happen if you all commit more fully to it?’
Pattern 3: Contingency
This one certainly applies to me. I think maybe it applies to Steven Gerrard too. Fulham away said as much to everyone with a working pair of eyes. Your belief sometimes relies on a contingency – events going your way, even when doubts are invading. We can’t call ourselves title contenders unless and until we… .
Get a sequence of those events lined up? Everyone’s getting their tops off and whirling them around their heads. For me the big one was Southampton away. It felt massive – a validation of our credentials that was somehow indelible. That’s only been compounded by events at Old Trafford.
Pattern 4: Inference from Analogy
Folklore tells us that the British Cycling team, through its work with a mysterious sports psychiatrist, were able to withstand mental pressure and retain their focus when others lost theirs. Maybe if Liverpool worked with a mysterious sports psychiatrist, they’d get that kind of mental strength. The kind that lets you win away at Old Trafford. The kind that sees the other side get red cards, while your players only see yellow. None of it’s empirically provable, of course, but damn if it doesn’t add another rock to the foundations of our collective belief.
Pattern 5: Disprove the Converse
“I have to believe,” said Nemanja Vidic last Saturday. “If we beat Liverpool, maybe we can turn things around.” Bless him. Chelsea lose at Villa, with heads going left, right and centre in the process. Arsenal wobble at Stoke. If nobody else believes they can win it, what then? C’mon Man City – throw us a bone, will you?
This weekend, it started to feel inexorable at both ends of the M62. The erosion of their belief, and the positive spiral sustaining and reinforcing of ours. The players, and Messrs Atkinson and Graves, may have been ahead of the curve on this.
But by this stage, it’s probably futile to try and resist.
Pic: Dave Rawcliffe-Propaganda
And this is why I love the Anfield Wrap so much, footy, music and Hungarian philosophy in one place. Love your work Hendo. I just posted a response to Karl’s piece before I read this one, which echoes the sentiment (far less eloquently) you wrote about here. Is that another foundation of belief, coincidences signalling causality by underlying processes?
I remember Neil reasoning near the start of the season that “since this season is completely mad, and we are the maddest team, it is only fair that we win it”, and thinking yeah, that sounds about right and signing on at that point on one level. But now it feels like we have been through the looking glass and out the other side and the season is no longer mad, with Chelsea and Man City floating to the top and Arsenal homing in on 4th place again (probably proving some chaos theory theory, that a mad season that keeps on getting madder will eventually become sane again), the only difference being is that in the process we have slipped into a parallel universe where the Liverpool were never knocked off our perch in the 90’s and are playing with the confidence usually reserved for champions, and United have taken our place struggling with leaches for owners and a manager who doesn’t have a clue. It is almost too good to hope for, let alone believe, but when it feels this good why not?
(NB: You will know for sure that we are indeed in a parallel universe when Moyes starts rubbing his face like a magic lamp trying to get back to the one he thought was in instead of his current nightmare)
That parallel universe had Howard Webb as the referee and the game finished 0-0.
First ever Utd game where I didn’t have that sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. The times they are a-changin’.
It’s the Southampton game that made me believe. I think we’re gonna win every game now. The run in of 2009 was the last time I felt that way, no nerves just going into every match knowing we’ll win this. And in 2009 the only one we didn’t win was Arsenal, but that’s because it was a mad game. The difference is now this Liverpool wins the mad games.
Brendan’s made us believe again, he’s made us limitless!
“Flannagan is a limited right back” – Nope, he’s a cultured left back. Limitless!
“Henderson has limitations, he’s just got good legs” – Nah, he’s hitting 40 yard cross field balls and back heeling through Spurs players legs. Limitless!
“Sterling’s a tricky winger with good pace but not much else” – He’s playing as a ten, a TEN! He’s winning balls against lads twice his size. Limitless!
“Gerard’s on his last legs, time to phase him out, defensive midfield shows his limitations” – Best holding mid in the league. Rodgers has improved Gerrard as a player. Think about that, Gerrard has IMPROVED under Brendan Rodgers. The best player at the club, possibly best ever, at 33 has improved.
No limitations, 9 wins coming up and the fucking title.
It was the Southampton game that made me believe. And I’m a Southampton fan…
It took me until the United game to believe as well.
City have to play Fulham, and then just three days later they have to take on United. The Mancs are coming off a huge UCL win (it pains me to say, against my other football love, Olympiakos) and if they beat West Ham they’ll be going after City with a full head of steam. And things don’t get easier for them afterwards: they get to go to Emirates just four days later to play a team with ambitions of their own, and then to St. Mary’s – also not an easy hunting ground. Who here would be shocked if City drops four of the six points they potentially hold over us before they come to Anfield? And it’s not as if we’re their last difficult game – they also have to play Everton away, also.
Chelsea’s less tricky, but we have a game in hand on them (which we have to assume cuts their lead to one point) and they have to host Arsenal. That’s a game that I hope ends 0-0, since, besides Anfield, it’s likely the last game that *should* (Villa, cough, cough) challenge them. Beating them at Anfield gives us a 2-point leap, so even if we drop points somewhere else, we still get them with GD.
And where Arsenal are concerned, I just hope it goes draw, draw, draw for them against Chelsea, City, and Everton.
With all that in mind, I can’t help but feel that the League will not necessarily be decided by our stand against Chelsea and City in April. I think Rodgers is absolutely right when he says the next four fixtures each need to be treated as The Big One. By 13 April, we should be sitting at 74 points and City at 67 – nullifying their games in hand, so long as we do our job at Anfield. By 27 April, we should be sitting at either 78 or 80 points, while Chelsea will hopefully have no more than 79.
Too much, too much! I love this season so much, but I almost wish it would be over already!