THERE’S a great deal to be learned from the last week of Premier League football.
Thursday evening saw a Premier League game which is unusual, and given the game was between the two sides directly below Liverpool there was a huge level of interest in it from Liverpool fans, and rightly so. Whatever the result was, there was something for us to talk about. As it was, Manchester City and Manchester United drew, both closed the gap by a point, and there was a chance (roughly 55 per cent having checked the implied probability from the betting market) that by the time we kicked off at Watford on Monday evening that Liverpool would drop out of the top four.
10pm on Thursday evening until sometime on Sunday afternoon was all doom and gloom. The world and his wife seemed to forget that Liverpool were third in April, had more points than Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal and were very much in the driving seat in terms of finishing in the top four.
The only thing down for Liverpool was us crumbling and being passed by United and Arsenal, City didn’t need to pass, the future had been visited and they were already confirmed as finishing in third. It didn’t matter that Arsenal had to go to Spurs at the weekend, or that this coming weekend they play United, or that the weekend after this one United have to go to Spurs to play the last ever game at White Hart Lane, they’d already somehow managed to bag all these points while Liverpool were going to feebly drop points left, right and centre. There was a bizarre feeling of pessimism.
Blind panic seemed to have overridden any sense of logical thinking. Spurs hadn’t lost at home all season, were playing their last North London Derby at White Hart Lane and were going for the title but some people had it in their head that an Arsenal side who haven’t won an away game at a team above 13th place this season just needed to put their kit on and they’d get three points.
Similarly, Manchester United were three points behind us with two games in hand on Thursday evening. A gap that doesn’t feel particularly insurmountable in the grand scheme of things, but football needs to be measured by more than the grand scheme of things. United have drawn 14 games in the league this season, before Sunday it was 13.
They are clearly a little flawed as a side, yet people had built them up into some footballing machine that crushes everything in front of them. This is also with them having serious injury problems that means they had to finish on Sunday with four full-backs and having a Europa League challenge which is clearly now their number one priority and best route back into the Champions League.
Manchester City, after winning their first six games and picking up 18 points in the process, have managed to pick up 47 points in the 28 games that followed. Now, it’s entirely possible that a team with as much quality as they possess suddenly click and up things a level or two, but people were talking like it was certainty. When I said that a draw was a good result for us on Thursday people told me that third was out of the question as City would just pick up too many points after that point. The basis for thinking this was at best slim, at worst non-existent without a lot of supposition.
I think the concept of a league table as a basis for forming hard opinions is interesting. Plenty of people will tell you that at the end of a season teams finish exactly where they are supposed to – I can’t agree with that. Over the course of 38 games there are simply too many variables to have any accurate gauge, all they are is a list of how many points each side picked up. Would Swansea have won at Anfield had we played them three weeks earlier when Bob Bradley was in charge, for example? Would we have won at Selhurst Park if Sam Allardyce had been in charge in October? The answer could well be yes to both but the change in circumstance faced by different teams obviously skews things. Injuries happen, managers change, teams play differently. Yet at the same time, a league table gives you a broad idea of how things are going. What a team are capable of is broadly, but not exactly, reflected in a league table after 33 games.
So why were people so downbeat about things? I’m not for one second saying that Liverpool are going to waltz to third or fourth, or whatever. I don’t think there’s a great deal in terms of difference in ability between Chelsea, Liverpool, City, United and Spurs. They’re all good teams who will challenge for the title next season if their managers do their jobs this summer and the uncontrollable things go their way.
But for some reason, there was a mindset among some that things will suddenly change. We’ll drop off, these teams will improve and we’ll come sixth.
If people aren’t capable of looking at the positives of this Liverpool side when it comes to competing in a race for top four, then what would they be like in a title race? It’s no wonder that Anfield has turned into a festering cauldron of misery if people think we’re rubbish (we’ll be third on the morning of the May 6, for the record) and everyone else, including the sides below us are brilliant.
How about a bit of positivity? You know, embracing the quality in our ranks and then being a blind football fan and thinking everyone else is crap?
After Monday night, we go into the last three games in control of our own destiny. Three convincing victories should see us get third, I reckon four points will see us get fourth given how many points you would think United and Arsenal will realistically get.
So let’s look at third, City have to host Tony Pulis and Sam Allardyce. I’m pretty sure both of them would love to show their talents against Pep Guardiola to make a point about how neglected British managers are.
However, if you want to be negative and think about fourth, United have also got Allardyce, they visit Arsenal, Spurs and Southampton, have a Europa League tie against Celta Vigo starting tomorrow and their squad is that stretched I’m convinced their bench is being filled by people who have won a raffle. And then there’s Arsenal, who require snookers while also holding the handicap of being Arsenal. Stoke away and Southampton away? If they win all five I still don’t think they’ll get top four.
The odds are in our favour. I think we need possibly as little as one win from our final three. Two of these games are at Anfield so can we all get behind Liverpool as opposed to turning up, thinking we’re crap and moaning about everything and anything? It’s a huge three-week period for the future of this club. Knock all the negativity on the head and show a bit of belief.
We are where we are because we’re about as good as good as City and United, anything that the three sides do over the next two and a half weeks is unlikely to surprise you. Maybe we’ll lose in stupid circumstances on Sunday or the Sunday after or the Sunday after, but then, why wouldn’t they? Everything negative people decided this Liverpool side are capable of could quite easily be attached to them too.
Start thinking logically instead of thinking the worst about a good football team.
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Nice one there bro
Good post – somehow I think many supporters are scarred from past failures and automatically fear the worst, whereas apart from Chelsea and Tottenham who have been remarkably stable and consistent, I would comfortably rank Liverpool as next best. This despite the fortunes spent on the Manchester squads and their very experienced coaches.
We have the best squad and best coach we’ve had in years (apart from the gift that was SAS in 13/14), and a team that’s actually playing like a team. While there’s always some risk of a worldy that throws up a shock, our lads have responded incredibly well to a poor January to drag us rightly to the top 3. Have faith and enjoy the ride!
Win all our games we get champions league football – its a simple a statement as that.
United can get a maximum of 77 points which means Arsenal can only get 72. Alternatively, Arsenal can get 75 meaning United can only get 74.
So, worse case we need 9, best case we need 6 and that’s assuming United and Arsenal get maximum points where its possible.
Add the variable games against Spurs etc into that and the likelihood is around 4-5 points will get top 4.
Then lash City into the mix – maximum points for them is 78 – same as us. Now, I’m not sure on the order for deciding tied sides, but we should beat them on goals scored and head to head, with GD being too tight to call.
Third is on for us if we keep strong and focused.
Its probably worth looking at current form…
We’ve won W6 D2 L2 of our last 10
City W4 D5(!!) L1
United W5 D5 (what the fuck is in the water in Manchester with these draws??)
Arsenal…”If they win all five I still don’t think they’ll get top four” – it’ll put them on 75 points
Next line…
“I think we need possibly as little as one win from our final three” Will give us a maximum of 74 points. One win 2 draws.
All for being positive – but this makes no sense.
Phil isn’t saying that he expects Arsenal to win all five, nor is he saying he expects us to get only one win, so it makes perfect sense.
It doesn’t make sense mate.
My point is that if Arsenal win their last 5, they’ll get 75, which Phil doesn’t think is enough. Yet, in the next line, he believes Liverpool need as little as one win to get in, which gives them a maximum of only 74.
Thats the point mate, 75 is more than 74. You’re welcome.
Because Phil doesn’t think Arsenal will win all their games, he thinks one win could be enough for us.
Because Phil thinks we will win enough games to get more at least 75 points, he thinks Arsenal will miss out even if they win all their games.
Ah, well explained! Thanks
that’s assuming United and Arsenal get maximum points where its possible……the likelihood is around 4-5 points will get top 4.
lets get 78 and make this whole conversation a waste of time.
Hey! Nice
No, Anfield01’s right. Phil’s predicting that 75 points wouldn’t be enough to get Arsenal in the top four, but that 73 would be enough for us (“I reckon four [more] points will see us get fourth”). Those aren’t compatible statements, regardless of whether he expects either event to actually happen.
But like Anfield01 I’m fully on board with the gist of the article – we’re strongly odds on for the top four, and currently leading the race for 3rd, while Arsenal are almost out of it.
And I too found the idea that we’d blown our chances after the Palace game utterly bizarre, and was actually surprised to hear Klopp even mention the notion after the match, even if it was to rubbish it.
jeez – 4 points should get us top 4 as Arsenal and United will likely drop enough points, but the likelihood is we’ll get enough points, along with city, to make arsenal getting maximum points redundant.
Probably the most sensible thing I’ve read. Don’t ruin our fun though. If Utd win or Liverpool lose I want to completely lose my head. If we win and they lose I want to feel like we’ve won the lottery. There are a lot of issues with LFC fans. None more so than the ‘I told you so’ brigade. We certainly saw it with Rodgers and we still see it daily with FSG. We’re seeing it with individual players too. I don’t think anyone likes to see us not win but I think some can find their raison d’etre in defeats. Liverpool need to win the league to put a stop to all this negativity.
I think if we win on Sunday then United will give up on top 4 and focus on Europa, they’re not far off doing that already. Forget Arsenal (hopefully), so it’s 3rd or 4th for me. Big game on Sunday!!
Completely agree with Robyn crimes need to win the league to restore the confidence and credibility
The amount of unadulterated negativity I’ve came across is simply astounding.
So called supporters who had completely and utterly thrown in the towel saying we’ll never qualify for CL despite having 4 games left against reasonable opposition.
Even when I pointed out our form, Utds remaining fixtures and their injury list they still couldn’t get behind the team.
It was quite pathetic really.
Now I’m not saying we defo will qualify but it’s all very do able.
Where articles like this written about the mindless positivity of “were gonna win the league” back in the first half of the season. Anyone who didn’t share that mindless optimism was denounced as not a true supporter. Pricks.
The manager said then and would probably say now “one game at a time”
We have three to go.
Lets just take one game at a time instead of celebrating already. This season isn’t over till its over
And enjoy it mate ? This is what it is all about. We have 3 cup finals to play in our season. Better that then nothing eh.
Exactly!
agree and not agree.
agree that as a fan we should have faith and think positively. sometimes i wonder is it the negative thinking that cause liverpool to lose. or if we strongly believe that we will win can form some sort of pressure to the opponent and force them to make mistake.
not agree to be too optimistic. one game at a time is right but u have our full support.
Eight weeks ago we were a team of habitual losers; at least that’s what Phil told us. Now, though, when we’ve flattered to deceive so many times before, we’re supposed to feel bad about not getting moist about our chances of finishing in the top four?
Behave.
The fact is, whilst too much negativity is almost certainly a bad thing, a touch of realism isn’t. During the ninety-odd minutes the boys are on the pitch, support should be ferocious and unrelenting; but either side of that I’m not sure optimism is a luxury we can currently afford. How often do we need to be let down before we realise that, until we can sustain the standard of football of which we are undoubtedly capable, it’s perhaps best to err on the side of caution?
Maybe that’s too safe a stance, I don’t know. What I do know, however, is that wise-after-the-event articles like this do little to help. Would we be reading the same thing had Arsenal not looked completely gone at the game? Would we be reading the same thing had United not suffered two more first-team injuries? Would we be reading the same thing had City not fumbled against a relegation candidate? I rather suspect not.
At this stage of the season, the next game is quite enough to be worrying about.
Great article and fully agree. We need to show this in the stands starting on Sunday. Palace was a prime example of the negative vibes from the stands and it impacts the team..eg with 10 mins to go the stands were emptying like we had lost and in huge numbers…..roll back 12 months and those same stands bounced and cheered the team into some belief that we can come back from the dead against Dortmund.
We are Liverpool, be loud, be proud, be positive and give our bit to help the team get there!
Spot on with this article. 3 cup finals. First one is Sunday. Everyone lucky enough to be in the ground should be up for it and support the team. If you are not you better give your ticket to someone who will. Really hoping we don’t have a bunch of fucking groaners and moaners waiting to be entertained like the palace game. “Real fans” better show up or shut up.
I find this article a bit confused. Not the 74-75 thing which Graeme has explained But because it correctly talks but variables but then seems to ignore a couple of key variables, such as 1) that we are without Mane and Hendo and have question marks over several other players and 2) since Xmas, we have shown no sign at all that there is such a thing as a home banker. It’s great that we have 3 0-1 wins away but even then the cross-bar was a big variable. So it seems perfectly reasonable to me to be a little nervous at this point.
But I’d prefer to be a little nervous than 4th, 5th or 6th.