What a win. But what a selection. And then what substitutions. In short, Stoke City vs Liverpool was a game with any amount of bones to pick out of it.
Neil Atkinson is joined by Sean Rogers and Stuart Wright for the sort of Tuesday Review where the talking points very much write themselves.
Jürgen Klopp took a chance and won. Mark Hughes got it wrong and lost. More within…
Apologies to the lads for posting this here. An unrelated comment but comments are quite scarce on the Review due to people feeling out of their depth. I wanted to share something I’ve been looking at. This seems an ok place to post it. Apologies.
Anyway, I decided to have a look if anyone else in the top 6 had suffered our fate or benefitted from having/not having a steady pair at centre half.
I’ve been convinced for years that any team winning the league needs a decent centre back pairing. You only have to look through the title winners from the 80’s and they all had a renowned pair.
Everyone knows Liverpool have lacked here , but in fairness, I still hear – it’s the system, not the individuals.
Now, admittedly, there are variables such as opponent, fatigue, system, strikers etc but I think there’s evidence for having / not having a decent pairing who know each other’s game.
Chelsea.
Despite the system, Luiz and Cahill are their centre halves. They didn’t play the first 4 games of the season together. So when they came in for the 5th game it was a new partnership. They lost both games 5 and 6. But, after 2 games together they went on a run of 14 games where they conceded 4. 2 of those in 1 game. Ok, you can say they have a good keeper and were protected by Kante and Matic but that’s part of my point about having a decent spine of which the centre halves are crucial, whether 4 at the back or 3.
Point being, Luiz and Cahill have played every game together since the 5th game. Maybe a coincidence but they are the most consistent team in the Prem. First 6 games with unsettled pairing they took 10 from 6 at 1.66 ppg
After that once settled they took 65 from 25 at 2.6ppg
Spurs
Vertonghen and Alderweireld have played 18 together and 13 not together.
18 together they’ve taken 45points at 2.5ppg.
13 not together they’ve taken 23 at 1.75ppg
More interesting is they played together for the first 8 games of the season and didn’t lose.
They’ve now played together for the last 6 and won every game even without Kane. The last defeat coming against us when they clearly missed Vertonghen. It’s clear that Spurs title hopes were dashed mid season when through 17 games they only played 4 times together. They’re unbeaten for the 14 either side of that spell.
Liverpool
Matip and Lovren have played 12 together and 20 not together.
12 together they’ve taken 2.15 and the 20 not together they’ve taken 1.85
Interestingly, they did have a run together. They played games 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 and 13. In that 11 game spell of games 3 to 13 we took 2.45ppg. That ratio would but us above Chelsea by 3.4 points over the season.
Arsenal
Arsenal have underperformed this season. But then, they’ve been without Mertesacker for the season. That’s left Koscielny and Mustafi.
They’ve played 21 together and 9 not together.
In the 21 together they’ve taken 1.95ppg. In the 9 not together they’ve taken 1.45.
Interestingly, they played together for games 4 to 15 and didn’t lose.
They seemed to go off the cliff after game 22 and that probably seems down to the CL exit and Wenger situation.
Up to 22 games though Koscielny and Mustafi played 15 together and were unbeaten. In the 7 they didn’t play together (3 at the start and 4 in the middle) they took 10 points from 7 games (1.4ppg) compared to 36 from 15 (2.4ppg).
City
City are another team who have underperformed. Again though, Kompany has been out for the season bar 1 full game. There’s also a clear pattern to City but it seems to go the other way. Personnel perhaps? The first choice pairing in the absence of Kompany (I’m guessing) would be Otamendi and Stones who’ve played 13 together at 1.61ppg. In the 18 they haven’t played together it becomes 2.22ppg. A marked difference. One way or the other City have to sort out their centre backs because something’s not right with Otamendi and Stones. At the ppg ratio they’d be below Everton.
Utd
I didn’t actually look at Utd because they’ve been so disrupted. Again though, a team spending that much cash have underperformed. They’ve had bad luck with their centre backs. I suppose Bailly and Smalling would be their preferred partnership (though debatable) but they’ve both been out for large parts of the season.. That’s meant Jones and Rojo coming in. Rojo has missed 13, Bailly 13, Smalling 20, Jones 16. Either way they’ve not had consistency at centre half and it shows in their league position.
So, everyone knows we need a new centre back. It’s no secret. We have to get better than both Matip and Lovren though imo. I think Matip has looked good with a decent partner. Without one he’s looked awful at times. Lovren would be a good 3rd choice although he could end up playing equal games to Matip and 1 other. They have to be a pool of 3. Klavan will be ok for 4th choice. We need someone who is happy just to be at the club and ready when called on. I think he’s that man. I put all our troubles over the last decade to not having a solid defence. It cost us 13/14 and it’s cost us this season. It’s ok when we play teams who play football. We can play too. In the Prem though, some teams don’t play football and we need a big hard bastard at the back. Matip can play the football and read the game. We need one to batter them too. .
Conclusion
You can’t win the league without a settled centre half pairing. Chelsea have had by far the most settled. Spurs are second most settled with just the middle of the season hindering them. Bearing in mind City and Arsenal have lost their centre half for the season I think Liverpool are third most stable although our centre back record is similar to City. Arsenal and Utd come in 5th and 6th because both had to play 4th choice more regularly than even City. Now look at the table.
We’re gonna need Lovren and Matip against these last 6. Palace looks a lot harder now. Will Boro need the points to stay up? Either way, they’ll want to go down on a high. Often happens.
This is great stuff, Robin. You make a really compelling case. Klopp’s Dortmund at its best played with settled back pairs. A big center half bastard sounds good to me. Southampton here we come again…
The problem with van Dijk, mate, is he’s another good looking chap. Another baby face. We need someone with a broken misshapen nose, chiseled cheek bones and the eyes of a crackhead.
Basically Carra lol