SOMETIMES you write because you think something and you want to put it over to other people. Sometimes you write because you are trying to work something out and you just don’t know. Below is most definitely the latter. It’s about transfers, net spend and FSG’s ambitions for Liverpool.
The Anfield Wrap transfer committee shows we do always become rancorous in preparation (and back in June, actually became rancorous in recording). For those of you that don’t listen, the way it works is I apply rough values to players we’ve been linked with, and players in the squad, and then four of our contributors become the committee and settle on a pattern of business. The argument advance usually revolves around how much Liverpool have to spend. Those who are going to be on the committee always feel it should be more. Especially Rob Gutmann.
Yesterday, there was increasing online discussion around how much Liverpool have spent this window. Regular commenter below Robin Crimes was disagreeing with Mike Nevin about Liverpool’s net spend this summer.
@michaeltnevin I thought our net spend was closer to £40m. Certainly no where near £10m
— Robin Crimes (@Robin_Crimes) August 31, 2015
Hello Net Spend, my old friend. It has been far too long.
Once reported add-ons have been taken off fees and payments to QPR regarding Raheem Sterling have been negotiated and a value set on Danny Ings then it would appear, by my calculations, that Liverpool have spent around £25m net. £32.5 for Christian Benteke, £21m Roberto Firmino, £12.5m for Nathaniel Clyne, £7m for Danny Ings and £3.5m for Joe Gomez up against Sterling £35m (Robin was pretty adamant about this), Fabio Borini £8m, Iago Aspas £4.5m, Rickie Lambert £3m, Sebastian Coates £2m.
£76.5m spent versus 52.5m recouped.
There’ll be loan fees received, signing-on fees paid out, agent costs and let’s swerve wages for a while. We know all that and we know we can’t know it accurately enough. Jose Enrique is going to West Brom for a nominal fee today. Ignoring that, too. Let’s deal with what we have to go on. So would we have thought it would be £25m before the summer? Is that enough?
The cold figure doesn’t seem like enough. Allowing for the teams around us and below us to have strengthened as well, it doesn’t seem like quite enough, certainly when the focus should always be first and should never be fourth. To do that, with the increase in TV money, should Liverpool have pushed more? Should we have been looking at one more big hitter somewhere?
And yet on the other hand, as has been said in many places this morning, we can only be impressed with the money the club got for Borini. We have done well there. There is a general vibe that we’ve done well to shift on the players we have and to have got the fees we have for them. Would we be happier had we been less able to do that? Let Coates go for nothing, Borini for 3m? Paid more for Clyne? I’d argue we went too soft on Sterling but we could have been softer in real terms. Would you be happy about that if it meant the net spend figure was that bit higher? It’s all a bit daft. Further, how many new players can you integrate across a summer?
So have we done good business or parsimonious business? I suppose there are a couple of ways to answer this. Does the squad look at least £25m better? On paper, I think it does. Losing 34-year-old Steven Gerrard alongside Borini, Aspas, Lambert, Johnson, Coates and Jones, and replacing them with James Milner, Benteke, Firmino, Ings, Clyne, Gomez and Adam Bogdan should lead to improvement — not least because those doing the replacing are far more likely on the whole to get on the pitch by virtue of being both good at football (and running) and actually present at the club. The above looks significantly more than £25m better.
But that is before you get to Sterling. It’s the loss of the 20-year-old that is the killer. If those players were being added to a list with Sterling still present on it, then that right there could be seen to be a £50m improvement. The consolation for Sterling going between 14/15 and 15/16 in real terms is the return of Daniel Sturridge, the man with 40 goals in 67 appearances for the Reds. The issue with that is we’re back at Sturridge with all the injury concerns that go with it.
The squad appears balanced though. Lazar Markovic going out on loan is a disappointment but we were beginning to look like having one or two too many for a “shadow” Europa League side — a front six of Jordan Henderson, Milner, Philippe Coutinho, Firmino, Sturridge and Benteke, covered by Lucas Leiva, Emre Can, Adam Lallana, Jordon Ibe, Ings and Divock Origi doesn’t have space for Joe Allen, João Carlos Teixeira or Jordan Rossiter, all of whom need time on the pitch for different reasons and that’s before you look beneath them to the prospects who haven’t been loaned out.
#Fenerbahçe #50 pic.twitter.com/Qh7nCAhPPe
— Lazar Marković (@LMarkec50) August 30, 2015
Markovic is 21 and desperately needs to play as much football as possible, whatever happens to him next. There has to be an allowance for injuries but it’s a fine line between under and over stocked. One more experienced head in that shadow front two or three would be nice, but you can spend your life saying that. If anything, we look a full back short.
The argument is — was there the possibility for Liverpool to make a greater leap forward using this transfer window? Can you add one more name somewhere of players who have moved and believe, yep, we could have got him and he would have made Liverpool significantly better? Would he have got his game regularly and improved us? The players have got to be available — and even then every signing, no matter how ‘proven’, comes with an element of risk attached. Could we have kept hold of Sterling? Got another three months’ minimum as we have done with Suarez before and Everton creditably have with Stones?
The truth is that good business may well be parsimonious business, and FSG’s Liverpool got whatever it is they’ve done quickly and efficiently. But in a season where you want to be sure, want to see full-blooded commitment to the holiest of tasks in front of us, where you want to see Liverpool go for everything in every way on and off the pitch, this is just the first outcome which leaves you wondering.
As ever, on the pitch is where the proof of the pudding will be, but FSG shouldn’t want Liverpool supporters left scratching their heads about what’s happening off it.
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“Can you add one more name somewhere of players who have moved and believe, yep, we could have got him and he would have made Liverpool significantly better? Would he have got his game regularly and improved us?”
The one that got away – Yohan Cabaye. Palace could have had Joe Allen, jobs a good ‘un.
It doesn’t really matter because Rodgers will be sacked by Xmas,this idiot hasn’t a clue how too run a club like Liverpool Football Club.His buys have been a shambles and why stockpile attackers and only ever play one,Benteke is isolated up front yet this idiot won’t address it.I think every Liverpool fan cringes when he has a press conference because he always puts his foot in it,FSG need to get this idiot out ASAP or he will destroy more than the credibility we had in EUROPE.
rodgers OUT !!!
I’m going to do that utterly pointless thing in discussing the current transfer window by going back to last summer: how I wish we’d signed Schneiderlinn then instead of Lallana/Lovren/both. Not that the other two can’t come good, but it just seemed that in one swoop we’d have secured a classic defensive midfielder instead of a misfiring CB/bauble-like attacker. This window? I think the Sterling sale is key. Too many people far too happy that he left. For the second summer in a row we’ve sold our most potent attacker and are left hoping the replacements hit form.
Actually, this window is have signed Kondogbia. He’s wasted at Inter and I read somewhere he’s a Pool fan as well. I also wonder whether Bacca would have been a more natural for our preferred style of play (if we still have one).
Hi Neil.
Thanks for the thought-provoking article.
My take is that – if you look at Liverpool over the last few windows rather than just this one – then I think there are genuine concerns over the net spend. We’ve continually lost our best players under FSG and replaced them with potential or good players on cheap wages. Nothing wrong with doing smart business, and we needed to get top earners who weren’t contributing off the books, but you can’t continue down this road without damaging the team on the pitch. A couple of years ago our best players were Suarez, Sturridge, Sterling & Gerrard. Only one of those is left now and he’s injured. Our best fit player now is Coutinho – he was probably the 5/6 best player on the pitch 2 years back.
Your point about “Can you add one more name somewhere of players who have moved and believe, yep, we could have got him and he would have made Liverpool significantly better?” is well made – I don’t know enough to say for sure that there are better players out there that would have come and so I guess you end up having to trust that the club are doing everything in their power to get the best they can. I guess my point is that you should judge the owners (like the manager) over a long period and it’s by that yardstick that I feel concerned about the commitment to do everything possible to come first.
On the plus side – I think we seem to have gotten everyone that we were seriously linked with (and early in the window too) and that’s a welcome change from previous years. So, for that alone, the owners/recruitment team should have a pat on the back.
ps. Is it just me or should Liverpool put in a cheeky loan offer for De Gea? Bound to be rejected but it would be worth the needle and the unsettling factor if nothing else (assuming it doesn’t dent Mignolet’s confidence).
Like Nb & Paddy I think losing two of that terrific trio we had two seasons ago is the real kicker,
We had gold dust and unfortunately we couldn’t hold onto it for a few seasons which would have allowed us to add the magical one or two players at a time whilst still winning all round us,
Seeing Sterlo play well last Saturday was hard to take as was the Suarez inspired European cup win for Barca but things change and players/teams evolve during the season (apart from the Lov obviously, his one man mission to break our balls seems entrenched……..,,giggidy).
I wouldn’t really be concerned with the amount we spent as long as we got what we needed. Have we got what we needed? Not to win the league, we haven’t.
Does anyone honestly think at this stage that FSG really care about anything but reaching the Champions League? There is no winning mentality with FSG or their underling, Rodgers. 4th is their trophy. Failure in cups and embarrassment in Europe doesn’t really matter despite all the PR spin ….
1. We are getting nowhere near what the players we have are capable of.
2. Whichever players we bring in we’re not going to get out of them what they are capable of.
Makes it difficult to asses what we need are therefore whether we have what we need.
This won’t change under this manager.
Loads of LFC fans moaning about our consistently low net spend, that on it’s own, in isolation is a bollocks argument. We’ve paid out over £280m during Rodgers tenure (regardless of the Rodgers vs committee nonsense, whose buy is whose). We’ve just sent close to £40m (Balotelli and Markovic) of last summers transfers out on loan for fuck sake, lets have a look at some of the other players bought during this time? ILORI, Alberto, Aspas, Borini, Sakho, Lallana, Allen, Assaidi, Lambert… theres others too now all of this including markovic and balotelli equate to £130m. Not a single one of these players is a regular or ever were regular whilst here. So instead of simply saying “fuck off FSG spend some money, net spend is shit wah wah wah” how about we get some proper joined up thinking behind the team and the transfers and spend the money we do have properly, instead of all those players above we could’ve bought 4-5 very decent players who do or would play every week and we’d be much stronger for it and be making a decent fist of a top 4 finish. It is the massive waste at the club that is the problem. NOT net spend
i said before the transfer window, or maybe just in the beginning of it, that i didn’t want us to sign more than 3, at the most 4, 1st XI players. there’s this “gel” thing going on, you know, plus we already had lots of promising players at the club.
milner, benteke, firmino, clyne – that’s an ok gang of four. even though i’d rather we’d gotten ourselves an upgrade on lucas and put coutinho in midfield instead of milner.
To me the actual spend or net spend is totally irrelevant. The important thing to me is, does the spending benefit Liverpool football club? Unfortunately in my eyes under Brendan and FSG that has not been the case. The committee vs the manager thing is costing us big, as there is evidence of Brendan freezing out the “committee buys”.
We’ve spent big on a French international who’s captain for that side and has never been in favour with the manager. That the manager himself buys a £20 million replacement is clear evidence of that. Opening games this year underlines that fact.
We’ve sent a £20 million prospect out on loan to Turkey, even though he might need a year to settle as someone once said. Last summer we chased Moreno through the whole transfer window, which seems to be a £12 million outlay the manager doesn’t fancy. We’ve got a “terrific talent” in Ilori who hasn’t kicked a ball in anger for the reds which of course the manager is eager to get rid off. All £7million of it.
The absolute wast of tens of millions is totally irresponsible and in my view could have been put in to better use. Could the above £80 or so millions gotten a Costa, Willian or a Mikithariyan over the line? Would Suarez or Sterling still be at Liverpool if that money had been put in to contracts?
Are we in paper a better team than last season? Yes. Are we still along way of the 13/14 side. Yes. Has the investment in anyway closed the gap to the club’s in front. Probably not.
A couple of points regarding my involvement in this.
Firstly, it’s much more exciting reading an article that I’m mentioned in than one on, say, Brendan.
Regarding the Sterling fee. The website you (Neil) used to see the ins and out has Sterling in red with a * sign next to it. Clicking on the value brings up a dialogue box that says the flat fee was £44m with £9.8m going to QPR and £5m in add ons, which is pretty similar to my understanding of £6.5m if City win the CL and £8.8m to QPR. Point being, I think it’s accepted that the money we got for Sterling was around £35m.
Just finally on this vein attempt at self justification, when I said the net spend was closer to £40m it was prior to the Borini deal which I feel made my figures alot closer than the lunatic who posted our net spend was under £10m.
And that’s my issue. Yes, we’re all disappointed about Saturday. Some are disappointed we kept Rodgers and some don’t like FSG. That’s all fine and everyone is entitled to their view. What’s not fine and is something I’m starting to see regularly is Liverpool fans taking an overly negative view and cooking the books to back up their negativity. It’s as if they’d prefer our net spend, for example, to be less so they can moan, in the same way some undoubtedly see positives in a humiliating result (it backs up the case they’ve made every day for 3 years). There are Twitter people whose every post has an underlying resentment in everything they say and whose aim is to insinuate Liverpool FC are doomed. And they support us. I find it pathetic and for the record I find the character assassination of Jeremy Corbyn pathetic on the same site.
For the record, I absolutely do not include Mike in that crowd of tossers. He’s a top top bloke unless Liverpool have lost, haha.
Regarding the spending, I heard you (Neil) on the radio this morning and completely agree that Utd are finding it hard to get the top players now. Pedro is a classic example. I don’t know the details but it seems they pursued him for a while but the minute Chelsea came in it was a no brainer for him. I’m sure most people have seen the photo of Utd’s missed targets. The same applies for us. I hate this argument of just throw money at it and we’ll get them. It’s not true. The landscape has changed. Good players are assured top wages from any number of clubs now. A good wage offer doesn’t necessarily trump everything else anymore. How many top players in the last few years have put a high wage before ambition? City and PSG sold a brilliant vision of the club and perhaps got a few surprising players around 2010. Liverpool have to be realistic in their targets. All this, go and get Cavani, Sanchez, Benzema etc that we have to read every summer and January, is nonsense. They’re not interested.
I think we’ve done ok in the transfer market. I still think we’ve not covered a few positions well enough. I’m more concerned about how the players we have got are being used. I really don’t understand the Markovic loan. I expected him to be knocking on the door of the first team. Wishful thinking perhaps, after what we’ve seen of him but even so. Finally, I’m amazed you still put Allen behind Lucas and Can in the pecking order. He’ll be back soon and I fully expect him to show us all that when he plays, our tempo is better and our result is better. Lucas slows our tempo and Can can’t be trusted there.
Haha, good post Robin and I hear where you are coming from with the Allen view point,
My only worry with Joe is which one shows up after this injury??
Do we get the Allen who was excellent in his first few months and ran the show against a goid City side or the inhibited player who seems to listen to the crowd to much and goes into his shell after a dodgy pass or two (I would need counselling for a decade after THAT derby miss so I’m actually amazed he hasn’t just retired),
I’m with you on some of the loan deals as I thought Marko showed some balls at times last year away to Sunderland & Spuds at home come to mind and to my eyes looks to have more about him (at this point in time) than say Ibe,
Illori should at least be given a farkin league cup game to see if he is up to it before getting discarded surely no?? Let’s at least see what the boy has to offer and the worry is we could be on the verge of doing a Hendo (leaving him almost bugger off to Fulham before he matured and worked through it),
Good article Neil and some great comments as usual,
The odds are surely in our favour that one day we will eventually go into an international break on the up but until then keep the articles and podcasts coming as it’s the only s consolation after a hiding like that on Saturday.
Its not the net spend that we should be looking at, its the quality of the business that we do. Would you be happy with a net spend of just £10 million??
If not, then cast your minds back to last year, that £10 million was the total net spend of the Chelsea team that went on to win the league.
I can’t help but think we still need a goalscoring midfielder, don’t ask me who because I don’t get paid enough to scour Europe’s/the rest of the world’s talent.
I think we’ve bought better this season than many a season, I think we have a better squad (notice I said SQUAD, not best starting XI) than when we almost won the league.
Still can’t help feeling its not enough.
I’m hoping we’ve deliberately withheld some money for the January window this season to give the squad a welcome boost mid season, when we’ve identified where the team isn’t quite performing.
Our best window under BR was his first January when we signed Studge and Coutinho. Two bargains of that calibre will never come along again realistically but it’s a nice thought.
We’re very short at fullback if you ask me and after the second half against West Ham I’m wondering if we’ll be seeing more of the 343 this season than probably any of us anticipated.
Of course all discussions over the next two weeks will be in the shadow of Saturday’s horror show. Promising players who were starting to look the part against Arsenal are all viewed more negatively at the moment.
I was, and still am, pretty happy with our Summer dealings. Our attacking options are manifestly better than the paltry fare we had last season. Compare our swiftly completed business with ,say , Spurs who failed with their gamble on nabbing Berahino and are now left with a worn out Kane , a young lad I had never heard of and their version of Balotelli stinking the place out.
Then there is Man U floundering around on deadline day and paying well over the odds on a massive gamble for a teenager after having let proven scorers go. Add in Chelsea’s ultimately fruitless pursuit of John Stones and Arsenal’s inability to attract a top striker and our business looks well managed for a change.
From Ian Ayre’s comments after the Benteke deal it would appear we got all of our first choice targets. I’m sure Brendan would have liked to have pushed for another centre half but FSG probably pointed to the £38m outlay on Sakho and Lovren.
As for Markovic, if the club are serious about him having a future at Liverpool then surely a Premiership or Championship loan would have benefited him more than going to Turkey .I wonder how much wage bill constraints and stadium costs had to do with that deal and with the net spend in general.
The problem we have now is getting our new players to gel in a predominantly youthful squad and the inconsistency that engenders.Hopefully this will be the last major overhaul we need for some time and this group of players is allowed to mature and grow together.
Personally, I’m happy with the signings but I would have loved us to have gone all guns blazing for Pedro. At 21 million he was a steal, a top quality player who’s won it all – league trophies, champions leagues, world cups and european championships. Yes, he plays in a position where we are significantly overstocked. But, and it’s a big but, he adds star quality, he adds prestige (important for prospective signings) and most importantly he adds goals and assists in that front 3. You could argue that we wouldn’t have had a chance of signing him when Chelsea were interested but I just don’t buy that. We’re Liverpool – sell the project, sell the club, sell the fans, sell our 5 European cups, sell, sell, sell and do the business early (as we have done for most of the signings this summer). We do have a lot of players in that position but it’s more or less the same all over the pitch. If there’s a world class player available and at a reasonable price, then surely, surely, we have to go all out to try and sign him up if we want to improve?
I laughed my head off at the two transfer committee podcasts and wait for the third and final instalment….soon i hope?
I’d have liked to have seen another full back brought in, or at least clear signs someone from the U-21’s is being promoted and am left to wonder who Clyne’s back up is – the injured Flanno? current left back Gomez? if it becomes Gomez, then who’s Albie’s cover as I can’t see Jose getting anywhere near a pitch for us?
plus… Shaqiri at Stoke – how did that happen??