WE’RE back where we started with Philippe Coutinho then.
Reports today suggest that the summer’s impasse over the player’s proposed move to Barcelona may be ending and that Liverpool FC’s top brass are softening their stance. Cited is that the rhetoric from the club is not now as unequivocal as it was back in August while reports in Spain claim the player believes he has played his last game for Liverpool.
But maybe a new strategy is being implemented on Merseyside.
Philippe Coutinho still wants to trade #LFC for Barcelona.
The Reds are more open to considering his exit than they were in the summer.
La Liga's leaders would need to replace their bluster with a blockbuster offer to have any chance of successhttps://t.co/o0RbcWsQcI pic.twitter.com/h8WZEBSWad— Melissa Reddy (@MelissaReddy_) January 2, 2018
Liverpool is not a club short of resource at this point in its history. Around £220million has been committed in the last six months to secure Virgil Van Dijk, Naby Keita, Mohamed Salah, Alex Chamberlain, Andy Robertson and Dominic Solanke. Cynics will say that this extravagance was only possible because the option of retro-funding by selling Coutinho was always planned.
This theory doesn’t hold up under even cursory scrutiny. Footballers are fragile assets. Mainly because they are human beings. There are a number of circumstances that could see Coutinho’s value plummet — injury, loss of form, changes in personal life.
What business rationally invests £220m on the basis of recouping that sum via a future pay-off that has a significant probability of not transpiring? If this is how Liverpool do business then it is reckless beyond belief. For all the concerns that exist over FSG’s stewardship of Liverpool Football Club, extravagant risk-taking isn’t one of them. If anything, over-caution has been a hallmark of their tenure.
The uncomplicated truth is that Liverpool have expended £220m on new players because they can afford to do just that. The club can also afford — and would very much like to retain — Coutinho.
Liverpool FC, the ownership, the management, would all very much like to find a way of persuading the player that his long-term future is at the club. There are reports that a new contract has been offered. Recently Coutinho has been awarded the captaincy for certain matches. Liverpool remain acutely aware though that their star player continues to be very committed to the idea of furthering his career at Barcelona.
Coutinho is under contract until 2022 so Liverpool still retain the best cards but the manager will point out to the club hierarchy that it’s increasingly difficult to work with an unhappy player. Jürgen Klopp’s daily reality has to be taken very seriously.
So what’s the club’s next actual move? Perhaps it’s to tell the player that it will sanction his sale but that it will be at a price and terms that reflects the upper end of his worth in the current market.
The club will seek to convince the player and his entourage that there is a figure below which they cannot be expected do business. Liverpool will make all of the right noises about wanting to “work with” Coutinho on this, but strictly on terms that all parties would deem “fair”.
Liverpool’s hand is strengthened by a bull transfer market. Kylian Mbappe’s transfer to Paris St Germain is worth around 180m euros. He’s only 19. Neymar moved for a world-record fee in excess of £200m (a fee considered to represent an undervalue because of a release clause).
Phil Coutinho is a player on fire. Scoring goals and making goals at the fastest rate in his career. The stage is set for him to light up the World Cup in Russia. Cases can be made to pitch his value today at anything from £150m upwards.
https://twitter.com/WhoScored/status/948187545069867008
Barcelona, despite being armed with transfer proceeds from the sale of Neymar, were unable to find an offer to tempt Liverpool in the summer beyond £82m up front with £36m in add ons. And that figure was reportedly offered only in staged payments over several years.
Of course, we now know that Barcelona inflated the headline bid to £118m, to include those spurious add ons. Liverpool rebuffed this proposal and would surely be within in their rights to say to Coutinho that they are not duty bound to release him for a fee below market worth.
The poverty of Barcelona’s final offer of the summer transfer window exposes their hand. They are not cash rich, despite the Neymar deal. If they could barely find £82m in the summer why are they suddenly going to find the further c.£60m that would be required to tempt Liverpool now?
Liverpool’s best plan would to remain apparently reasonable, but resolute. They must effectively reach a “virtual” deal with the player and his agent. Liverpool must seek to gain agreement with Coutinho that should Barcelona’s proposals not reach a certain minimum that it can be accepted that they are not acting commercially.
In effect, Liverpool can set the stage for the player to become disillusioned with his suitor rather than the Reds. From that point, Liverpool potentially have a platform from which to persuade Coutinho to re-commit — in mind as much as on paper.
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Surprised youve glossed over the fact that the net spend is piss poor from the owners.Tbh im bored of the whole “will he,wont he” and have no probs if we get around £150m for him and we replace him with american wonderkid from Dortmond or the boy from Monaco monaco.Also bored of the ownership constantly playing moneyball with club.Theres only one thing chipping away at my excitement of Klopps side and thats the ownership of LFC.Ticket Price increase or no nee Annie Road,minute net spend by a big clubs standards,Building the Main Stand,new club Store and new (soon to be) hotel.Is the club sucking up every penny so they can sell for a ridiculously large profit whilst this amazing manager has one hand tied behind his back.
sorry mate, but that misses the point of what is going on here. This is all of Phil Coutinho’s making. What are we supposed to do? Or rather, what would you do here if you owned the club?
Net spend *was* poor. It’s been the opposite in the last 6 months . It’s been incredible in fact .
Rest of it I’m inclined to agree, but those are different subjects . I’m not trying to appraise FSG here , just trying to comment on the renewed Coutinho saga.
Sorry,just frustrated that all media seem to be blind to whats obviously (to me anyway) happening with FSG.If we balance it all up when ins and outs are sorted,I’ll be amazed if bet spend has increased on average.I agree that this is all down to Phil wanting out of club and not other way round.I also think club should consider not buying south anericans because they will always see us as stepping stone to Barca or Real.Pointless trying to build a great team knowing that theyll jump If they hit the heights.Twice now weve been on verge of something special and its fell apart because of the lure of the two super powers of world football.Any Scandanavian or scouse supertars about lads? Haha
Net spend in headline transfer fees is only part of the equation (salaries + agent fees the rest). Easiest way to work out whether FSG is taking money out of the club or not is the overall profit, which has been a net loss over FSG’s tenure I would expect. Also, even if FSG were in this just to make the biggest profit (which I don’t reckon) then it would still be in their interest to make the club as successful as possible first wouldn’t it?
Mate – FSG has always spent within their means. They are continuing to do so taking into account increased revenues, and a zero net spend summer before last. There is not a lot of evidence to support your view. It doesn’t mean you are wrong, but it probably means you should re-visit your position that it is obvious and everyone else is blind.
Your position on buying South Americans is also not consistent with your first point. If our owners are determined to balance the books, then surely buying 2 players for 30k and selling then for over 200m is a good thing.
I don’t get the rush from Coutinho. He still has Champions League football, we’re going well in the league, made some positive signings and, after all, Barcelona will still be there next summer.
I appreciate the threat of a transfer ban is looming, but there are ways round that by signing now for the summer. I just don’t get the hurry to get out – its not like Liverpool have in way mistreated the lad. Unless the prospect of a decent WC from him means his fee going out of reach of anyone.
Some people seem to think he and his “crew” are worried that Barca will take the path of least resistance come the summer and sign Ozil on a free. That could definitely be the case if he blows up the world cup.
wouldn’t fill me with a huge amount of confidence that Barcelona want me if there is a concern they might go for Ozil instead.
I suspect the strategy from his camp and the barca press is to lower the asking price rather than to force a move in January – it’s possible Barcelona really can’t pay anything more than what they bid last summer. I read that they have to sell 8 players to afford Coutinho and Griezmann, so they probably have to find a way to force Liverpool to sell at a price they can pay. Liverpool will do well to learn from Southampton’s recent negotiation tactics in this case I think, i.e. threaten to report, then Barcelona pays asking price. I also think that any transfer ban resulting from Atletico’s complaint won’t come into effect next summer.
The point of Barca and Coutinho’s camp trying to press Liverpool to lower the asking price is a good point. As Wolfsburg sporting director was quoted recently saying, Liverpool’s negotiators are not Good Samaritans, but shrewd and ruthless money men. Barca have realized this, thus the nonsense from their compliant Catalan press. Rob Gutmann’s advise for the club to remain reasonable but resolute is sound – if Barca want Phil, they better pay upmarket value.
Hopefully Liverpool will not be swayed by all these antics. And like others here and elsewhere I still don’t know what the club is waiting for and why they don’t report them for tapping up, because if anything that will make this circus go away for now. I like the theory going round that Liverpool are calling Barcelona’s bluff by waiting, so hopefully if/when the bid comes in it’s too low and then Liverpool will take action, turn it down and then report them. Last thing we want to see is barca rewarded for all this – stay resolute Liverpool, add £10m to the price for every match he’s ‘injured’ between now and the end the month, threaten to report them if they continue unsettling him, only sell in the summer if at all. Not the first time that Barcelona have done this and it’s bizarre that they should keep getting away with it.
I’d be surprised if he goes in January, Barca are flying in la Liga right now so don’t really need him and isn’t he cup tied for CL?
I can see him moving after lighting up the world cup this summer though. Unless we win the CL, that might change his mind :-)
The obvious flaw in this logic is that coutinho won’t give a fuck how much Barcelona would be willing to pay. Just that they want him and he wants them.
A player always has to be mindful of his club’s fee requirements. A player always wants his selling club to sell for a lower fee because it then improves his hand in wage negotiations. But in a case like Coutinho’s his obvious high market worth cannot be ignored by the player . His case for ‘demanding ‘ a move improves relative to the size the fee offered. He’s praying Barca are prepared to pay big or this deal doesn’t happen.
he would be happy to agree a sell-on or buy-out clause so will be fully aware of his value.
He has 4 years left so absolutely no need to accept anything below what Liverpool consider his real value to them- and payments upfront in one or two payments. The reality is Barca are skint and there’s no way they can pay 130m+ up front. Hence the ridiculous never never add ons.
Gutter this week, Bob?
If Barca can’t afford £150m or so then they can fuck off. I get why C’s interested, but something good is happening at Liverpool and it’s more likely to happen if he stays plus he’ll be the main man and central to it. That said, if Barca stump up £150m, then fair enough – if not, let’s put it to bed and he’ll have the understand that they can’t afford him and LFC are shifting a gear in terms of what’s happening with the team and our realistic aspirations. We’re on the up – he must see this and it’s not like he’s playing for the toffees and fat Sam!
Given we have him under contract until he is 30 (and Barca will have long gone since then) and he has already shown he will knuckle down (and tbf he has no real choice other thank to sabotage his own career) why is there any reason to sell? Bottom line is FSG have a sell price and that is fair enough. The one thing you have to give FSG is they are interested in the yankee dollar and will play their hand well. Be shocked if they got mugged off on this deal. If he goes it’s on their commercial terms – not because of a mystery thigh strain in January or August.
Well done Rob
You’re obviously looking for an angle to maintain hope. Why shouldn’t you do that? Your a red through and through.
Unfortunately there are a new group of moaners at LFC now and they can mix it with the over 50s in the Main stand.
It’s the 30 to 40 year olds and I’d guess most of the negative posts above are from them. FSG aren’t perfect, they don’t go to games and he’s they have a firm hand on the finances but what’s so bad about that. We are miles further down the road than we were when they stepped in. We have a truly top manager, possibly the best we could have and a squad of truly top players being built.
Come on Phil…. turn it all in its head and make Rob and me happy men.
Interested to note the figure of £220m. The much discussed £200m figure (on The Gutter) before the summer now looks real especially when the inflated fees for VVD and Keita are included.
The net spend argument is no longer valid.
I would take the £135m and reinvest in Lemar plus the best keeper available, Oblak for me.
spot on total agreement. I would like Goretzka as well and show Can the door
Is he going to leave now in order to sit on the bench for Barca during Champions League nights? Very doubtful. Doesn’t suit any party. Hopefully he’ll sign a pre contract a la Keita and he can bid is adieu by winning Big Ears
to be fair it might only be 2 more games with us. Nobody bases the next 4 or 5 years of their career on the outcome of a champions league knock out phase.
And in the meantime he will almost certainly get a league medal, better weather, greater recognition in Brazil, and undoubtedly more money.
I’m born and raised a Scouser so I wouldn’t go but he does not have that pull. Objectively I wish him well and I think Rob is bang on in terms of the rule book for making it happen.
As Soton found out, there is a food chain. Same applied to Roma and RB. We are closer to the top than most, but we arent there yet.
I will sell him but not for less than 150M Klopp has strategically made LFC a team which includes Coutino and not the other way round FSG has given Klopp time to do that by not selling now that has been achieved they are willing to sell hence the change in tone if Barca don’t pay up then let them sweat anything less than 150M will be silly and a complete give away come on Barca!!! we are waiting for your move so that we can slap you in the face with the 150M man up show your face haha! !! we are smog like a far* waiting to sting you Umtiti is a sitting duck as I write can we do a cheeky bid go on Klopp do it and the Derby draw will be forgiven really love it …
I agree with you Rob that having Coutinho under contract means we still hold the cards.
I’m not really enamored in any way with Coutinho like I was with Suarez and Torres. Their contributions were massive and endeared themselves with their personalities. Coutinho is good not great, for me is no where close to those two given the amount of time at LFC. The fact that he is conveniently injured during certain transfer windows doesn’t really help either.
Coutinho’s ambition, like most players, lies with fame and fortune he seeks with a “bigger” club. Can he win the world cup single-handedly like Maradona or CL like Cristiano Ronaldo? I don’t know. He will certainly have the money to the tune of 220 million or whatever inflated amount that will make him appear to be a great player, much like most other celebrities who are average or little above the cut among their peers, that convince people today, that somehow they are worth that.
Continho will contribute to the team and the bar will be raised by playing with even better talent, but so will the others competing for the spot. Do you think Barcelona are only interested in him? In addition is an injury away from bench-warming, as I don’t think he is as physically strong as the players I’ve mentioned above that withstood a lot before they were taken out.
If Coutinho leaves this window the team will certainly miss his contribution, but that is why we have Klopp right? Klopp’s job is to figure out a way around this having been privy to much more than any of us actually know for fact.
I think it would be better Coutinho stayed as he has top 4 in a tougher league, and CL to prove his game, including the World Cup to further increase his worth.
LFC will capitalize either way though, I just hope the club and Klopp know what to do with the money besides already buying VVD.
I wish Coutinho the best and hope we get to play against them/him in the future to see what he’s really made of by then.
Now on to Everton.
Up the Reds!!!
Sell him to Real Madrid for a £100m. Worth it just to prove a point to Barca and every other club. He is going – we might as well enjoy the deal when it comes.
Good article but shame it was hijacked by certain of the FSG out brigade who it seems can think of nothing else.
Appreciate the article. Is it possible that Barca can be considered being eclipsed by the rich Prem teams? Want a player but can’t afford close to the market price? Weak. I’ll take the 118 and Rakitic in the summer. Spend the money on milinkovic savic or pulisic. Maybe “borrow” against that now and send 5 to Leipzig for our boy. A dream but it’d be fun.
What REALLY gets my back up with all this is the return of the sudden transfer window phantom injury … Is he basically now unavailable for the whole month?? Why does the club go along with this?
Will he miss the City game? Will Klopp continue to lie, like he did in the summer to cover him, because he wants to protect his body for a potential medical …
It’s gutting … once again we’re close to something special, but potentially the ‘fab four’ are now history, JUST as we have a season run-in that promises SO much.
@livrule I understand your worry about the momentum. I too have the same but looking at the bright side, I trust that Klopp is well aware of, and also probably tired of it, as well.
For me more worrisome is the dip in form of players like Mane who needs to be carefully managed around all this.
It is a team game and like you said we are sensing something special across the team. The team can and have won without Coutinho in the past, and hopefully Klopp will help make this consistent now.
Unfortunately Players will continue to leave for bigger and better or the greener grass until we become that club. Just need to deal with it for now and focus on what we have to work with.
You haven’t mentioned they spent a £113m of Neymar cash on Dembele, so they don’t have £200m burning a hole in their pocket anymore. That could contribute to them playing hardball with structured deals instead of 1 lump sum.
Also if coutinho does go, I would not be after Lanzini?! If he goes strengthen that CM even more as well as Keita, we need someone in there of the ilk of Kroos, Modric, Xabi, etc. We score enough goals as it is. We need a deeper player now who can play pinpoint throughballs in behind for the runners, none of the current CMs can do this.
In thinking about this transfer rubbish again, I am left wondering who has the most say in this move?
Barcelona
Coutinho and agent
Klopp
and/or
FSG?
Each have their reasons I presume, but if we do a Keita deal and settle the dust so all parties mentioned above can move forward, it might be better in the long run.
VVD’s transfer didn’t help in this matter due to the media interest in the amount for a defender. So it may happen sooner than later.
I would ask for a higher sum for a January transfer or if they waited until summer then the price is more reasonable, assuming Brazil doesn’t win the World Cup.
On another note how funny would it be if we sold Coutinho to Real Madrid?
This is a great piece – well reasoned, with none of the bollocks ‘ITK’ nonsense that actually perpetuates the fakery of discourse around transfer deals. Carra’s point made in relation to this is sound – *if* he’s hell bent on going, it should not be a case of him leaving this month. If it’s a deal now so that he goes in the summer, that should be the very worst scenario we should be entertaining, and ideally with his replacement in the bag and even better, in the squad come February 1. I don’t believe for one second this guff over “having played his last ever game for Liverpool”. It’s a World Cup summer and he’s under contract until 2022, one he signed a year ago. The club comes first. Klopp may get pissed off with working with ‘an unhappy player’, but the answer is pretty simple – do a Suarez and stick him with the kids, then he’ll soon come around. The bigger picture here is to ensure that Barcelona, or anyone else in future, becomes fully aware that we will not feel dutybound to sell our best players, and that they will never pick up any of them on the cheap. The fact that Barca are using such dubious and underhand tactics – housetrained hacks who are a disgrace to their profession, the Nike website wheeze – indicates their desperation. And what a sad, sorry sack of shit that club has become – a club that was once a bastion of regional pride and who steadfastly maintained a no-sponsor policy for that reason, now just another corporate slagheap using methods the Francoite Madrid would probably deem unwholesome. Mes que un club? Get to fuck.
Exactly.
“I would ask for a higher sum for a January transfer or if they waited until summer then the price is more reasonable” — this is exactly what they want though and what I’m worried Liverpool will end up doing. I really think that they are not interested in buying him this January but the effect of the messaging is to give the perception of a compromise when he goes in the summer. In negotiation-speak it’s the “anchoring” cognitive bias. Giving them a more reasonable price in the summer is walking straight into their trap. Our position should remain we are only selling in the summer without compromising on price. If Southampton managed it no reason why we can’t.
Hi Amy, Happy New Year to you. Did you have a nice Christmas and New Year’s Eve?
Wow, anchoring bias and adjustment :). Nice one Amy. I totally missed that. Bloody car salesman tactic that isn’t it from Barca. I can’t recall, (short term memory loss here), but was it Barca who had come in with the initial bid? Was there a firm offer with add-ons? I read things here and there and so am a little lost.
It feels all so muddled with Barca’s way of handling things and that Nike commercial rubbish, I mean come on! You know Amy, if FSG have anything in their credentials it is that they are fast learners, especially when it comes to losing money, (players might be another thing).
Looking back a ways, do you think Suarez’s sale was a mistake then in terms of how much we could have got?
Mentally I’ve prepped myself ever since losing Torres to Chelsea. It was hard as he was my fav player and still is despite what happened.
Happy New Year to you as well Sash. About Barca – they haven’t put a new bid in this window yet, we’re all just going by what the club, Coutinho’s agent, or barca are feeding the press at this point. Can’t be bothered to think of Suarez’ sale, and that was muddied by his world cup antics, though it always feels like we didn’t get enough for our best players.
Oh and Torres was my favourite too. Was never happier than when I watched him play for us.
Pulisic is developing into one sound player. I say if cout or can leaves, fsg n klopp should really try their very best to get him in with his bvb n usa roots.
He can easily be our next coutinho story..lots of upside if it goes thru.
Coutinho is gonna go, we knew after the summer the end was coming, our softened approach doesn’t necessarily mean we will sell in January, just maybe we can agree for a sell in the summer and keep all parties happy, we can’t repkace him this window so it’s mad to let him go, if we got Lemar and Keita then I’d say go for it but I can’t see it, as with the FSG out brigade I don’t really care what they say, they are miserable arseholes who can’t get behind anything the club do, damned if they do and damned if they don’t, think we tried to cheat with Brendan but that proved the money ball is bollocks, we are investing heavily in the squad and I’m happy, we will always lose our big players who have no affinity to the club but if we get the best deal we can then great but I believe we will spend right and our recent acquisitions prove that, just hope Mané and Salah don’t jump if the Spanish teams start batting their eyelids! Fantastic article as always Rob! Steve Graves article is also worth a good read too! Up the reds!