EVERY so often I get to sit in a room with people who know what they’re doing, people who have genuine contacts, people who check their stories with multiple sources, people who take those checks to the clubs and ask for comments, people who know how difficult it is to get deals over the line, people who genuinely have an idea of what’s happening.
LISTEN: Pulling back the curtain to see what goes into transfers on this week’s FREE show
And I never ask them, off or on air, what they know; never ask them what they really know but can’t talk about. It seems rude to do that. That’s their job that we’re talking about, I’m just a bloke with a keyboard who loves the sound of his own voice and is willing to speculate wildly.
Just over a week ago, I sat in a room with Melissa Reddy from Goal.com, Glenn Price from ESPN and the ever lovely Robert Gutmann of this parish. And we talked transfers. We talked the usual suspects, the lads that we’ve been taking about all summer because, really, when it comes down to it, we’ve spent the summer talking about four or five lads. One of them is already here and Liverpool seem to be doing their best to grab the others while their prices go higher by the day. We talked about the possibility, the remote, beautiful, possibility of Kylian Mbappe, of Naby Keita, of whether The Reds could still go back in for Virgil van Dijk, of whether any of us would be moved to tears of joy by the arrival of the Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, of whether left-backs were a thing that interested the world. And, in the middle of all this, I came up with a theory. As with all my theories, what I saw as a blinding flash of insight is probably the most obvious thing on the planet but I blurted it out anyway.
And I’ll share this theory with you, if you haven’t already heard it.
Let’s be honest here, Liverpool are shopping in a whole different area at the moment.
We said we’ve spent the summer talking about the same four or five lads and we all know who they are. And the reason that we’re talking about the same names all the time is that these are the names in the stories that we’re reading. Which means that these are the names in the stories that the journalists are telling. Which means that these are the names in the stories they’re hearing from agents and players and clubs and foreign journalists.
"It's not just the fee [that holds up a transfer]."
Great insight into transfers from @SangyFootyAgent. Listen: https://t.co/gTATMivCJL pic.twitter.com/v1kW81KJaT
— The Anfield Wrap (@TheAnfieldWrap) July 4, 2017
Which means that the club are focused and determined. The club know who they want and they’re not messing round. Certainly not after all that unpleasantness with van Dijk.
There had been plenty who had speculated last month that Liverpool would break their record fee this month, once, twice, probably three times.
And, speculating wildly with no better contacts than you and not being a betting man of any kind, I’m almost willing to put money on that happening.
We’ve got Mohamed Salah. Liverpool went there, Liverpool paid the money. There may have been haggling, you would hope there had been haggling, but they went there. Liverpool didn’t go to Roma and take Fabio Borini, Liverpool went there and took one of their top players, took an influential lad who can add to us, who Jürgen Klopp wanted and set the tone for the summer.
The Keita deal seems to be gaining real traction. Or not, if you believe Leipzig. The club seem to be pushing this though; letting the world know that they’re willing to meet Leipzig’s apparent £70 million valuation. Jürgen has seen a player who can give him something he hasn’t got and the club are going all out to get him.
Who would bet against the van Dijk deal not rising Lazarus like from the ashes of that apology? Not me. There have been no other real links. Not with him to other clubs. Not with us for other defenders. Chelsea have nearly got an expensive centre-back over the line, nobody’s talking about Manchester City. Michael Keane was never really linked to us after those initial rumours, Harry Maguire went to Leicester to show the talk about him was nothing but misguided murmuring. There are no other names linked. None. As Neil Sang said on this week’s Transfers Unwrapped show, it’s down to the player now; all he has to do is let his current employers know that there’s only one place he wants to go, all that has to happen is one other club bid and surely Liverpool can start asking questions again? I’m with messrs Sang and Jonathan Northcroft; I can see this happening. I pray I’m right.
"The player wants to sign for Liverpool….I don't think this is dead."@JNorthcroft spoke to us about Van Dijk: https://t.co/zXANQvmzTr pic.twitter.com/iEFvR30jkK
— The Anfield Wrap (@TheAnfieldWrap) June 21, 2017
Oxlade-Chamberlain? Sound. I won’t pretend to be excited but this time last year I wasn’t turning cartwheels over Gini Wijnaldum so what do I know?
A left-back. Go on then, not overly arsed. (Maybe that Andrew Robertson?)
Which leaves the biggie, doesn’t it?
Mbappe.
Imagine. Imagine a world where Liverpool get Mbappe. Seems unlikely, doesn’t it? Does to me too. But lots of things seem unlikely to me that end up happening, so I’m willing to believe that Mbappe is possible.
Scoff if you like. Point to the fact that he’ll go to Real Madrid. Or Paris Saint Germain. Or Bayern Munich. Or Barcelona. But I’ll wheel out the well trodden argument that he’s going to end up there anyway and that he may just benefit from a stepping stone club first and that Liverpool could be just that stepping stone, that he could be persuaded by a manger with a reputation for developing young players.
The thing is, The Reds have put themselves in the conversation. And you couldn’t see that happening a year ago, could you? But now? Now it’s possible.
And this is where the theory, finally, for those who didn’t hear me make it up on the spot, comes in:
There’s an idea, a strong idea, that Jürgen isn’t going in for a striker. The fact that Liverpool didn’t seem to chase Alexandre Lacazette in any apparently dedicated manner might be testament to this idea. The idea is Jürgen is happy with what he’s got going forward. But. But. If he can get Mbappe, then that’s an absolute bonus, that’s the lad that you go all out for and take him while the one time chance is there.
WATCH: Episode four of The Wrap Up talking transfers, Steven Gerrard and pre-season
And this is the theory: If Liverpool can land Mbappe, if Liverpool can land those few names that they’re constantly linked with, what are we looking at?
- Salah: £40m.
- Keita: £70m.
- Van Dijk: £70m.
- Oxlade-Chamberlain: £25m.
- A left-back: £10m.
- Mbappe: £110m.
Lads, you’ve just spent £325m. In one summer. Sell Mamadou Sakho, Alberto Moreno, a few others, what are you getting? £100m? Still spent over £200m in one summer. The club are shopping where they’re supposed to be shopping. They’re shopping at the big table.
And to be alive in the summer that Liverpool do this? Very bliss. To misquote some old poet or other.
The theory is, this is the one (to quote the now departed Stone Roses), this is the summer. This is the summer that Liverpool go for it. This is the summer that Fenway Sports Group throw everything at making top four somewhere that Liverpool live forever, that leagues are something Liverpool challenge for every year. And that going for it may mean that they spend nothing for the next three or four windows but who would be arsed? You’d take that, wouldn’t you?
Liverpool are going to build something this summer. Let this be your annual reminder that we can all be something bigger.
Up the shopping at the top table Reds.
To hear discussion around Liverpool’s targets and more subscribe to The Anfield Wrap and listen to ‘The Gutter’ – our regular round-up of all the transfer talk. Look out too for special podcasts on new signings when they happen. A subscription also gives you access to our podcast archive – here are some of the highlights so far
Recent Posts:
[rpfc_recent_posts_from_category meta=”true”]
Pics: David Rawcliffe-Propaganda Photo
Ian,
see what you’re saying and all, but if i say im in the market for a ferrari and a rolls royce, doesnt really mean that its acheivable, does it? reminds me when Rafa said something like, “all we do is talk”. Salah is great, and I’m glad we have him and hope that your shopping list in the article is 100% on the money, but i just think that if youre shopping the kind of establishments the we should do, and should be aspiring to, your actions speak louder then any gods amount of “leaks” to the likes of Paul Joyce, for example. what i mean really is, just get the fucking deals done, then talk about it. if it takes longer that way, so be it. let other people talk. we let our actions do our talking. we dont need to convince others that we are the best. we already know it.
if you’re in the market for a 200 grand Ferrari then its 200 grand. you know that because that’s the price. You might haggle over 10k or so, but its ballpark 200 grand on interest free credit for 4 years. You don’t ask the price, go away to consider it then come back and find its now 300 grand up front because the salesman feels like it.
the reason the price goes up though, is because there’s so much talk. it pisses clubs off. VVD would, in all likelihood, already be a red if it wasnt for all the shite going on around it. now, because certain individuals couldnt hold their water, if he is to come in this window, van dyke will cost much more than he otherwise would.
most of that talk has been gossip and rumour.
VvD would have been a red 3 years ago at a price less than £10M if our scouting team want so shite. Their plan A seems to be ” what’s living on the south coast wearing a red and white shirt”.
Waste of space.
Ahh the sweet voice of optimism amongst the maddening voices of the EffEssGeeAht crowd.
I literally can’t read another tweet on transfers such is my disillusion with it all. This is FSGs chance to step up
Will they take it?
what I think the last 6 weeks or so have shown us is that its not simply a case of FSG stepping up. Its much more complicated than that.
We’ve offered 70m for keita and Van Dijk, or at least we’ve apparently agreed to pay top whack for the lads, and the selling clubs still aren’t playing ball. In this position, what more can FSG do? As much as we don’t like it, there is always a ceiling to every player’s cost and if 70m doesn’t get it done then I don’t know what will.
200m net seems a huge number, one we don’t actually have in the bank – but its actually very unlikely we will actually spend 200m in one hit. Its much more likely we’ll spend around 70m this summer, with the rest on a fuck off massive IOU over the next 4 years or so. And that’s just fine by me.
We do have £200m. Wages will go up by at least £30m but we can spend £170m. I’ve been saying we have this much since March and the fact that LFC clearly have an interest in Salah £40m, Van Dijk and Keita at £50m minimum each, Oxlade Chamberlain £20m by our figures and a left back for £15m backs it up to an extent. In reality that £175 will rise to £215 with around £60m coming back in.
No chance we’re getting Mbappe though.
Where is this 200m? I didn’t see any reserves lying around in the last financial accounts
but it doesn’t really matter where it comes from, whether its actually spent in one go, or whatever.
Its about getting the lads in we need.
I think in Salah, Van Dijk and Keita that’s exactly what we’re doing. Just got to get them over the line. This is the summer where we back the new manager to stamp his identity on the team. Should have been last year but Klopp deferred till we were in the CL.
The club forecasts for the year when it decides it’s budget. If you look at the accounts from the last 5 years you’ll see LFC can spend £30m net and break even. There have been losses but they can be accounted for, H&G stadium plans in the early days, paying off managers etc but in the last 3 they’ve broken even. £0.9m three accounts ago, £60m two accounts ago due to Suarez transfer (which was spent in the summer bringing us to break even) and £19m loss last accounts, May 2015 to May 2016. which was down to paying off Rodgers, losses in commercial sales due to the club shop being closed during the main stand development and increased wages. Each year LFC’s revenue is growing 10% prior to the huge change last summer. So, my point is simple, we’re in a position to spend £30m and break even (give or take a few circumstances that are now not issues).
So, what’s changed? Well last season the tv money went up by £55m. (£90 – £146m). Also, we didn’t spend our £30m net. We made £5m on transfers. So, last season we could have spent £55m + £35m based on the figures of the last 5 years and still broke even (wage increases left out of it for now).
Plus, we have the same £90m to spend this year as we did last. We’ve got 2 years budget. Plus we’ll make £20m from just being in the group stages of the CL that wasn’t on other accounts (except 1). Plus we have £20m extra from the new stand. Ok, that will go to FSG for the loan but it doesn’t have to. They can defer a year if need be. Wages will have undoubtedly gone up loads since the last accounts but we still have plenty of money.
*mate, appreciate this is schoolboy accounting but it can’t be too far off. It’s a simple case of in’s and out’s. We know all the in’s and know all the out’s from previous years.
“We made £5m on transfers”
I love the way this number keeps going down.
10 months it was £20m, then it was £10m, now apparently it’s £5m.
Do you know what I love? The internet!
Turns out you can go on it and find out who LFC bought, who they sold and for what price. You can then do a calculation where you take the total value of who we bought and subtract the total value of players we sold. You end up with a net figure. Incredible really. Who knew?
You should try it rather than rely on heresy.
I can recommend transfer league and transfermarkt. You can also use LFC history but they include add on’s that may or may not materialise in the future. I stick to the first 2 which are more tangible. You’ll see it’s close to £5m in the sense that in maths there’s a technique called rounding up / down.
“Turns out you can go on it and find out who LFC bought, who they sold and for what price.”
No you can’t, not unless, as in the case of a side like Roma they have to tell the stock market what they’ve sold someone for.
As you say, some outlets are random in what they will or won’t consider as part of the ‘fee’ and in the case of Liverpool have a habit of not including addons for players we sell but including them for players we buy.
The prestigious internet (in particular the bbc site) declared we paid £30m for Henderson, a number that went down the better he got.
Don’t be ridiculous, players transfer fees are not secrets. Henderson was never reported to have cost £30m. What planet are you on? Do the math mate, it’s not difficult.
“Lads, you’ve just spent £325m. In one summer. Sell Mamadou Sakho, Alberto Moreno, a few others, what are you getting? £100m? Still spent over £200m in one summer. The club are shopping where they’re supposed to be shopping. They’re shopping at the big table.”
I bloody hope that you’re right Ian.
So many times in so many years, we’ve been the nearly men in big transfers, we need a big summer.
Is this a parody of that Everton forum post doing the rounds last year about them spending £300m and signing James Rodriguez?
Ian, I completely agree with the basis of this article but I’m sorry to say you’re wasting your time writing this for LFC fans. They want to think the worst.
Nice one Ian, get excited about all these transfers…… once they’re through the door pal!!
Well reasoned article as usual, Ian. You may well be correct and I hope you are!
We must kick on this season, some of our performances last season exposed our lack of strengh to an embarrassing degree but we all know this.
It’s time for FSG to shut up their detractors once and for all but the market is proving difficult and if we fail we will have to put up with the constant carping, there is no doubt that we need to succeed with at least two more of the targets you listed.
Salah: 35
Aubameyang: 65
Keita: 70
A decent LB: 30
CB: Keep Sakho
Sell fringes: -35
Net: 165
Seems like a doable and reasonable plan.
Lord I’m discouraged by Leipzig’s refusal to play ball but I’m determined to stay positive ,hope the nerves hold steady and we get the constructive summer we crave followed by massive nights at Anfield next season.
Something going on here Ian?
All the talking means nothing, when the transfer window closes we will know if we are tyre kickers or the real deal!
I think Mbappe is the most likely of ‘the’ three at this point.