THEY get every Premier League game live in the USA; Boston, LA, New York, Seattle. Wherever you are, you can turn the telly on and watch NBC Sports and watch every single second of the 380 Premier League games that are played in a league season.
I’d like to think that our owners tune in to NBC every time we’re playing but I particularly hope they watched the whole 90 minutes on Saturday. It was the greatest example of where we are as a club; we saw our limitations, we saw our problems and then we saw everything that is right with Liverpool.
In the first half there was a new formation, two teenagers, a right-back at left wing-back, and a man who’s been playing left-back all season playing in central midfield. It was disjointed on paper, it was disjointed in reality. I didn’t think it was quite as bad as everyone else did, but I think I’d managed to subconsciously lower my expectations and then generally be pretty unhappy that we hadn’t gone into half-time with a 1-0 lead, given that when they scored James Milner should have been lining up a penalty.
I don’t think we deserved a half-time lead on the balance of play, but if it’s 0-0 and you have a blatant penalty waved away on 44 you can count yourself unlucky not to lead.
The first half shows what happens when you don’t have any difference makers. We made two changes at half-time, and they showed what happens when you do have difference makers. Liverpool currently heavily rely on three footballers – Sadio Mane, Philippe Coutinho and Roberto Firmino. Take one out and there is a noticeable drop off, take two out and you’ve got problems, take all three out and you almost lose any real appetite for football.
The way of easing this burden when they’re injured, ill or exhausted? It’s pretty simple. Buy difference makers. This is why I really hope FSG were watching; it was the simplest, greatest, and most honest appraisal of us possible, without actually costing us anything in terms of points.
A lot of people will see an xG map and lose their mind but I think Saturday’s is something we can expand on. Here’s one of Saturday’s game. It tells a story.
xG map for Stoke City – Liverpool. This coulda gone a lot worse for the Reds. pic.twitter.com/7X2SJ7IFQt
— Caley Graphics (@Caley_graphics) April 8, 2017
For anyone who doesn’t know what it is, it gives a percentage chance of a goal being scored for every chance a team creates. In terms of chances created Stoke got 2.1 and Liverpool got 0.9. This tells us a variety of things about the match, Stoke created some really good chances, Liverpool created a few half chances broadly speaking.
We can watch the match and know this to be the case. Simon Mignolet pulled off two genuinely brilliant saves while Liverpool scored a bit of a scrappy goal and a genuinely fantastic one from Firmino. It truly was a game where big players did big things, and a goalkeeper did what a goalkeeper is judged on. Saves that make you go ‘well in, mate’.
People seem to have a surreal theory that all goalkeepers are shot stoppers, as if stopping a shot is just what they’re supposed to do and they’re all good at it. It’s very strange. People have argued that Mignolet is very good at shot stopping and others counter that with “well he should be, he’s a goalkeeper”. Imagine someone saying Daniel Sturridge is really good at kicking the ball into the goal and someone arguing that they don’t care about that because he’s a striker and he should be. Some strikers are better at scoring goals than others, some defenders are better at tackling than others, and various other things like that exist in football.
Yes, goalkeepers are fundamentally there to stop the other team scoring but some goalkeepers are better at it than others.
This is why you have the need for a great goalkeeper. Mignolet definitely isn’t a great goalkeeper, but every so often he’ll put in a performance like he did on Saturday. His contributions on Saturday were as important as any other player’s in any game this season, such were the quality of his saves. They were the goalkeeping equivalent of picking the ball up on halfway, beating three men and then putting the ball in the bottom corner.
The issue with him is that you need someone in goal who can bail your team out like he did on a more regular basis. He made a huge difference on Saturday, but you can’t say you have confidence in him making a difference with the regularity we require to get to where we want to be.
This isn’t something you can say of Coutinho and Firmino, however. They’ve consistently proven that they have it in them to make a difference.
I think we should try and sign one of the world’s best goalkeepers this summer, if we can’t get one then I could tolerate Mignolet next season, it wouldn’t be ideal but buying a player who isn’t an improvement is a bad idea, we shouldn’t do that.
What we should do is lessen the need for the goalkeeper to have to bail us out. A real, top drawer, fantastic goalkeeper could have won us lots of points this season, but then, so could a number of top attackers. Coutinho, Mane and Firmino all have, but the onus cannot be on them to do it for 50 games a season. There are very few players who can do that, because you need remarkable consistency and you also need a very high level of fitness, not just to stay free of injuries, but not many footballers can be at their absolute best for nine months.
These players need help. If I’m Jürgen Klopp I’d get on a plane to Boston the day the season ends, take a DVD of that game and use that as the basis for moving this club forward. Exhibit A: the first half, what happens when you don’t have your game changers. Exhibit B: the second half, what happens when you do have your game changers.
The case for the prosecution should be that Liverpool don’t put players at the top of their list who might be good and a little bit undervalued (although, I’d happily take another Gini Wijnaldum) or players who are potentially pretty good or someone who’ll do a job, the players who top Liverpool’s list should be ones who are close to certain success as is physically possible, the ones who’ll influence games regularly. They don’t have to be attackers; they just have to be really good at whatever it is they do. Tackling, finishing, stopping the ball from going in, whatever.
Granted, there’s an element of risk in every single transfer and nothing is guaranteed, but if you go out and buy a very good player then it’s likely that you’re going to get a very good player. Target very good players, pay what it takes to get them and make it as easy as possible for this club to compete on as many fronts as possible.
Good players win games. It’s a simple concept.
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Pics: David Rawcliffe-Propaganda Photo
Phil – While I get your point, more good players equals a better team. We absolutely need more good players full stop. However 99% of teams that sit their top 5 players due to injury or exhaustion would be horribly weakened and likely struggle against Stoke. Your certainly right that United, Chelsea and City’s squad depth from 1-22 is much better than ours. But Spurs and Arsenals arent. Take 5, 6 players off Spurs; Kane, Alli, Erikson, Aderweild and Son…who are they trotting out? You can make an argument the Spurs team you trot out looks similar to the one we trotted out at the weekend. The difference is when Spurs have had injury issues its happened in 1, 2’s at a time not in 5’s and 6’s. Spurs seemed to cope with Kane being out for over a month but thats because Alli, Son and Erikson all still remained. I am just saying without the requirement to build in the offseason for European football, your squad will undoubtably be smaller so if you get a situation when 5 or 6 of the top lads are out its not going to be smooth sailing.
no comment
Good contribution. Thanks for the keen insight monkeybrain.
We don’t have to worry about the summer mate. Obviously, it’s been muted in the press about our summer plans but I’ve been saying this since before that. It’s based on psychology. For arguments sake, let’s say LFC have a positive net spend again. Let’s say we spend £100m and recoup £101m. P.s The Echo were well wide of the mark if they think we’ll recoup £100m. We won’t and nowhere near it. So, spending £100m could be seen as ok. But, the positive net spend would cause our fans to go into meltdown. The pressure on FSG would be ramped up to the max. So, bearing in mind we spend around £35m a season, £70m net would be the absolute minimum we spend, therefore around £120m gross.
Things are very different from previous seasons though. We always spend what we can. In the early years of FSG we spent our circa £35m but ended up £50m in debt from legacy issues. Then we spent our £35m and ended up in profit of £0.9m. Same again the following year but ended up with £60m due to the Suarez money. We then spent the £60m net over the summer. So, I’m convinced FSG spend what they can and aim for the club just being in the black.
So, with the EXTRA TV money (possibly over £100m over this season and next (next is classed as part of the summer budget) the £15m + we’ll likely get from the CL (obviously a lot higher if we get out the group which I feel we can) plus the 2 seasons worth of £35m, we will spend over £100m net) therefore at least £150m gross. I feel Klopp didn’t want to be seen as a cheque book manager but after 18 months in the Prem he’s realised we need far more players and a better calibre. I don’t think he’ll want to scrimp and save as winning the Prem is prestigious however you do it. If anything, he’ll know you have to spend to achieve. I also feel last summer was more about assessing what he has. It turned out we let a lot of deadwood go and ended up in a positive net spend. He’ll be ready to add to the squad now.
I feel it’s a nonsense to say FSG don’t want success. I’ve said before, forget the final sale price when they sell, billionaires crave success for their ego. I work with Venture Capitalists and the money does come into it but even for people who have well over £100m it’s all about respect from their peers. It’s the main driver believe it or not. It’s well known for people who have over £100m money alone loses it’s appeal as the driver. So, I know they want success. Actually, the evidence is there already in the sackings and appointments. These are not people who are leaving it to chance. If you fail, you’re out tout suite.
No, we have the money to spend. Both the owners and the manager know we desperately need to spend. Neither are thick – they can see we’ve improved to the next level. We just need to go up one more level. Only investment in the team can do that now. We’ve done all we can off the pitch, CEO’s, managers etc. This is the final piece of the jigsaw. The club will still be in the black whatever up to £130m net. That just leaves the targets. Klopp has made us more desirable than previous recent years. The whole of Europe watches him and saw the 2 finals and the league before xmas. They all saw the Dortmund match. We can’t get the players wanted by the Spanish 2 but we can at least try to get the next level Griezmann etc. Personally, I think we’ll shopping in the tier below Griezmann but It’s all we need.
Where I trust Klopp is I feel he can spot the next big player a year or 2 earlier than most. As you say, some will fail but some won’t. The 6 big players we sign will be better than say, Can or Origi so yeah, buy quality but don’t worry too much about the name. For example, if we’d signed Dybala yesterday morning I’d have genuinely said I’ve never heard of him. I don’t follow football except the Prem.
I get your point about buying quality but the bottom line for me is, we’re gonna be really good next season. The foundations are already laid. I have absolute faith in Klopp and his mates to get the right player whoever they are. We won’t be paying £25m for a player who is of Can’s ability (much as I think he’s decent at times). That bodes well for me. The Prem isn’t as strong as we think. I’m putting my money on us next season (again). The will is there from all concerned. The money is there. The expertise is finally there and we can finally attract better than Benteke types i.e. best of the rest in the Prem outside the top 6. Everything’s in place. Finally, much as I’d take a better keeper than Mignolet tomorrow I feel that may be a difficult area to improve (although I don’t know who’s out there).
Thanks for submitting your dissertation
It’s not a dissertation mate. My dissertation was on ‘public participation in the planning process’ and I submitted it to my Uni, not TAW. What I submitted here was an essay.
Why won’t we recoup anywhere near £100mil?
Sakho £30mil
Moreno £15mil
Markovic £10mil
Sturridge £20mil
That’s 3/4s of it raised already with just 4 players sold.
Well, admittedly, it’s gonna be difficult to gauge the cost of players this summer with the extra money floating about but working on last summer’s prices I definitely can’t see where we get £100m. My reasoning would be – from your list, which are all top end prices, there’s no extra possible. Lucas would go for free. Stewart won’t be more than say, Ibe. I think if we got £5m we could say we’ve done well. Truth is, I don’t think he’ll go and if he does it’d be £3m.
From your list, I’d question all the prices.
Sturridge – He wants to go, Klopp wants him to go, but he’s on £150k a week for the next 2 years. Someone is going to have to pay him a similar fee. Who will take that risk? One or two will but they won’t pay £20m on top of £8m a year. The truth is, regardless of his unbelievable quality he’s a gamble now. The perception of him is tainted. Our priority is to free up his wages. If we don’t get rid it’s a catastrophe for Klopp. Therefore, we will have to charge around £10m and look at it as good for all parties. If we do really well we may get £15m.
Sakho won’t go for £30m. He is good but he’s not at that level. In January we wanted £20m but no one would pay it. We rejected £12m. Then we got £2m for the loan. Looking at those figures I’d guess we’ll settle for £17m.
Markovic has had a few good spells in games for Hull but he’s also proven he’s a bit shit. He’s 23 now and not made an impression anywhere. Clubs like Hull won’t spend £10m on a player like him with a reputation for completing drifting out of games. £6m at most.
Looking increasingly likely Moreno will go now. £15m though? We paid £12m for a promising player. Unfortunately for him his stock has declined now. Even with the new money I don’t see how we get it for several reasons. 1. Only a Prem team would pay that for a left back of his stock. It won’t be anyone in the top 10. Best we can hope for is someone like Newcastle. Can’t see them paying that much because he’s not proven quality. 2. He’s more likely to go abroad. Again, if a foreign team buy him they’ll want a very decent player for £15m. I don’t think they’ll see him like that. We could get £10m though at a push.
Look mate, I admit that it’s complete speculation on my part. My figures say around £50m. It could end up being double that. I very much doubt it though.
Your explanation for your numbers are flawed to say the least.
Well, I can’t argue with that as it’s only an opinion based on my interpretation. We’ll have to see in the summer. If we say your figures are more accurate then it’d be £75m recouped yet we’re only asking £20m for Sakho. So, that would be £65m compared to my £50m. It’s still not anywhere near £100m.
Michael, I’m always happy to learn. I’d be very intrigued to know what’s flawed about my explanations?
Here they are again.
Sturridge is a gamble due to his history.
The club are only asking £20m for Sakho.
Markovic is shit.
Moreno’s spell at Liverpool is unlikely to result in his price increasing.
http://www.thisisanfield.com/2017/04/liverpool-can-raise-another-80-million-sales-summer/
If you believe my numbers to be inflated then take a read of less inflated numbers.
Well, I agree with his figures a lot more than yours. I also have Sturridge up to £15m. Sakho up to £20m, he has Moreno at £12m, I have him at £10m. Markovic is a tough one. He has him at £10m which whilst not unreasonable I still don’t think many will be that interested in him. He’s showed he’s too lightweight for the Prem. So, he has that lot at £57m. I had them at around £50m, you had them at £75m which I felt was far too high.
But, he has listed some players with a potential value of £23m. I wouldn’t really argue any of the prices for those. What I would say is I’m not convinced we’d let Ojo go at this stage. Maybe we would but next season we’re hoping for a 60 game campaign. I wonder f it’s a little early to sell him. He’s 19. Definitely agree we could get £1m for Bogdan, £1m for Randall and Brannigan, £2m for Flanagan and £4m for Wisdom. Not really got an issue with £6m for Stewart either. So, even without Ojo that could be another £14m.
My issue with all this is it assumes we find buyers for all players and we get our top end asking price. Without Ojo that would be £72m. Still closer to £50m than £100m and still less than your inflated figures of£75m for those 4 players. I think in reality, we can take say £2m off, Sakho, Sturridge, Moreno and Markovic (assuming we find a buyer for Markovic – it’s proved difficult so far). So to conclude, in a perfect world where we if we were to sell all the above then I still think we’re looking at around £65m mark. £100m just seems ridiculous to me and £80m whilst not ridiculous will prove £15m too far.
I think some are making the mistake of thinking we did good business last summer on the outs and assuming we’re now very good sellers in the market. Allen is a very good player imo. Perfect for a team who aspires to 7th – 15th. £13m was fair in these inflated prices. He’s certainly more desirable than Markovic and Moreno. Benteke is another top top buy for a team who see themselves as mid table. Much as Sturridge is a far better player I think Benteke is more desirable to teams than him. That said, I still think someone like West Ham will take a punt on Sturridge. Not convinced Arsenal will anymore. Ibe was just terrible business from Bournemouth. I think the new money went to their head. Same with Smith. Sinclair was about right. Where I feel we did do good business was with Skrtel, Canos and Ilori where we raised £11m.
Just remember. For a transfer to happen, both sides need to agree the deal.
I think you’ll be mighty surprised by the money we receive for some of the players you undervalue.
Maybe Michael. We’ll just have to see what happens. I’ve speculated enough but imagine this, we spend £140m gross, you get your £80m and we then sell Coutinho for £60m and end up with a positive net spend. Our fans would lose the plot, haha. Later mate.
Just curious why you think 100 is so wide of the mark for summer sales.
Figure low end 60 off Sturridge, Markovich, Moreno, and Sakho. And that’s extreme low end there, it’s more likely 70-75 mil for that lot alone. If any of those sales are within England the price will be higher obv, as will any sales of other loanees or current squad players to other English clubs (Flanno, Stewart, Brannagan, Randall.) Such good business was done last summer it’s not hard at all to see that number getting pretty close to 100 mil this summer. Wondering why you think that’s so far off the mark.
I’ve just answered that above. One thing I will say is it won’t be £100m. Again, as explained I don’t see £60m for Sakho, Sturridge, Markovic and Moreno as ‘extreme low end’. Just to reiterate, we want £20m for Sakho, and we’re all guessing at £10m for Markovic and Moreno. It’s highly unlikely we’ll get £5m more for those combined, assuming we find buyers. So, I feel confident in saying £40m for those 3 is the high end not the low end. That leaves £20m for Sturridge (for your extremely low end). We need him off our books (or Klopp does at least). Mane, say was £34m. Do you think Sturridge commands anywhere near his price? I don’t. He comes with question marks over his fitness and mentality (as in he’s scared of getting injured). He commands a high wage. It’s 3 seasons since he scored 21 league goals. He has 14 in the last 3 seasons. Whilst we know why that’s so low it’s still a factor. Our hand is weak. Teams will know we’re desperate to offload him and his wages. They’ll know why we’re not keeping one of the top 5 strikers in the league and the bottom line is we’ll have to accept £15m. We can’t go saying we want £25m because we can’t afford to keep him. We’ll have to compromise. Time will tell, but I think £60m for those is very very high end.
Good piece of analysis Robin; agree with your calculations, though, as you state, it’s all speculation – I’d add you did some intelligent guess work.
Away from the financial and looking at the football side of things – in terms of Klopp and LFC transfers – we can make some reasonable guesses where he’ll strengthen. Last summer is a good pointer. We immediately needed upgrading in: CB, wing, ‘knitting’ midfielder and GK. Klopp did all that and moved Henderson to CDM with Can as understudy and Lallana was redeployed in a deeper midfield role. He probably thought Moreno would suffice – possibly had a good preseason etc. We had Sakho, Gomez, Sturridge and Ings and a lot of dead wood was cleared away. That is a good squad but we know how things have worked out.
I’m not sure about the reluctance to spend money argument – there’s obviously a ceiling. More pertinent is the number of players and the right ones being available. Klopp is a good manager and an intelligent long-term strategist – Germans are good at planning. He was never going to bring in ten players at a time – it’s too much. We’ve done fairly well and it’s to his credit.
This window he’ll target areas that again need attention: LB, wing – opposite flank, CF and CB. An average spend of £30M per position totals £150. Add one or two extras – possibly free transfers – the youngsters he’s trying out and for me we have s very clear, methodical, smart and sustainable strategy.
We gave a very solid base to build on, excellent off-field staff, an excellent manager and the best fans in the world. We’re going places and I’m very excited.
Completely agree with all that Steve. Just give me an effing centre back and I’ll be happy.
I’ve said 100 times I feel our gross won’t be much less than £150m. I agree with you that will more likely be 5 or 6 good players (give or take £25m players). Strikers will be more, defenders will be less.
I’m convinced we’ll buy a left back but I think Milner will start next season for the first 2 months. Well, more than 2 months but I think we’ll see the new left back bedded in over the season. Say 10 games in his first season.
The goalkeeper is a tricky one. I wonder if Mignolet will get an extra season and we’ll also have a look at Karius again. To be honest, I’ve absolutely no idea what I even think might happen there.
Centre half can slot straight in. If Lovren and Matip are both fit at the start of the season we may even see them start and when one is out bring in the new one. From then on it’ll be a fight between the 3 in a similar way we saw between Klavan and Lucas.
All this speculation assumes we keep Coutinho. Again, I’ve no idea what I think here now. I change daily. The contract talk of I see my future here was run of the mill stuff but he’s come out off his own back and added to that recently. Makes me feel he’s genuine or why say it if he’s planning on going.
So, like you, I also want to see another winger and will take that as a given. That does 2 things. It gives us cover and gives us another potential attacking midfielder (Coutinho). As pointed out by someone on TAW this week, Origi hasn’t given us a great deal off the bench. I wonder if we’ll buy a forward who can possibly give us another option off the bench or even another option against these shit teams. I think we’ll buy there too.
I wonder with Henderson, Can and Wijnaldum if we’ll buy a DM. I’m not convinced. We will buy a midfielder though so it could be there. I think he may look at another attacking midfielder. Someone with more drive going forward than the excellent Lallana. Different options for our pacy front men and someone stronger for certain games.
Agree, it’s really exciting. I trust Klopp to do what’s right for the club. We should have 16 players who we’re absolutely confident with then have Can and Origi (both of whom look like they will only get better and break into that 16) plus we’ll still need some youth players, Grujic, Trent, Woodburn, even Ings. Ojo perhaps. Ejaria. Possibly Lucas which would enhance the squad. Klavan 4th choice CH and Gomez for emergencies. I’m really confident our squad will be good next season.
Robin crimes ultras!
I don’t see where it (the explanation) is flawed and you don’t elaborate. Furthermore, in your own somewhat inflated evaluations you provide no justification for your own numbers
Robin makes some very good and interesting points, especially re the amount of money we may get back for Moreno, Sakho etc. I can’t see Moreno going for a high amount. He’s barely played so 15m is quite optimistic. Sakho has done well on loan but we got him for 17m only a couple of years ago so to expect almost double that is quite a stretch. Not impossible, as we saw Ibe go for 15m and he’s done very little, so who knows.
As for strengthening, I’d like to see a new CB, someone who can string a few games together without getting injured, remember Carra and Sami, barely missed a game?
I’d also like a new striker, again someone who stays fit and complements Cou, Firmino and Mane. However, if Klopp doesn’t want to play that way, as he’s shown many times this year then paying big money for someone in that position is not going to work.