CARDS on the table, I don’t rate Fenway Sports Group.
They’ve been in my Si Mignolet category for a while now, where it’s miles too late for the occasional good thing they do to make an impact on the memory bank of previous gaffes, howlers, and generally not good enough things. Like goalie like owners, and the problems with both are both summed up by a similar feeling of passivity, a lack of bravery. With FSG it goes further, and the big question is, are they ambitious enough to be Liverpool’s owners? For too long now we’ve had a pattern of the right noises and tentative steps forward, accompanied by several total changes of strategy at the drop of a hat, and a sense of dithering around sporting decisions that, by all accounts, is not present in their business dealings.
I’m sick and tired of the tactically leaked indications when the transfer window is closed that they’re finally getting it right, the noises that the next window will be the big one, not to mention the laughable latest that Liverpool are now paying more wages than Manchester City. Actions speak louder than words and it’s well past overdue that the club started to act as big as we talk. So what should our expectations and ambitions be? What does it mean to be the only club in the top 10 richest who aren’t in the Champions League? Who should we be competing for and with when the window swings open?
The dear departed Ian Ayre once (well, not just once) riled the fanbase by saying “If anything our expectations are too high.” This, along with the “be careful what you wish for” around the ticket protest was, to me, the corporate message leaking out of one of the only leaky vessels within the organisation. The expectations of the fanbase are maybe seen as too high by the club. Could they be right? In one sense, yes — we are known for expecting the title almost every season, despite finishing sixth or something most years (I only look at the table when we’re good). On the other hand, we’ve all seen what happens when this club has some momentum, good players and a fair wind. We’re not daft, we know it’s not far out of reach for us to actually start winning things again. The club has upped the ante by employing a top manager and handing more control over to him and his team than previous incumbents, ostensibly because they have succeeded in the past. Our expectations and theirs seem to be aligned on this matter at least, but do they have the ambition to reach that bit further?
Ambition is a trickier one. The Deloitte rich list published on Friday put us back in our favoured ninth spec, we’ve been there or thereabouts for 10 years. Above us are our rivals for domestic trophies, which is often stated as a reason for us not being able to compete for players and trophies. Below us, however, are several of our rivals when trying to sign players — along with Tottenham, there are Juventus, Atletico Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. These three are interesting comparisons with ourselves for different reasons as well as seeming to be in the same league as us in regards to transfer.
Juventus were relegated to Serie B in 2006 and snaked from third to 12th on the Deloitte list in the process. Atletico made their first appearance in the top 20 in 2012 after years in the underdog wilderness, and are clearly still light years behind Spain’s big two. Dortmund have been in a steady 13th since around the same time, with Bayern out of sight somewhere. Each club in the last 10 years has defeated significant domestic odds to carve their own identities as modern trophy-winning powerhouses. While not challenging us in the Deloitte league, in the time FSG have been in charge at Liverpool, these clubs have won 22 trophies between each other (nine, seven and six, respectively). What these clubs all have is a shared ambition to funnel the majority of their funds towards glory for their clubs, buying the best players while at the same time stamping new identities with new stadia or redevelopment.
I’m told Juve is an unfair example, and I dare say there may be reasons why the other two are somehow impossible models to follow as well. But then I look at the way Atletico sell quality player, after quality player yet trust their scouts to get better replacements year, on year. I look at Dortmund’s acquisitions through their enviable structure and sporting directors, all slotting neatly into their style. I see Juve get financially smashed and relegated, then focus all efforts and every penny into getting back to the top. When I consider all that, I see things that FSG could be doing but have made the choice not to. I see clubs planning to be the best, not just hoping.
I would ask what is the plan for us? When do we plan to be the best? As we keep hearing, this summer is huge for Liverpool, and it’s huge for FSG too. Even an impatient for a change, Mignolet-hardened critic like me was prepared to look at the predictable inaction of January and utter one final, through gritted teeth, “see what happens in summer then.”
There’s a lot of noise flying around, but before we get to the summer I think it’s time we each had a think about what qualifies as acceptable. The bare minimum is to feel the manager has been sufficiently backed. Klopp has spoken about quality, so let him identify what this entails and whether it fits the spreadsheets or not, don’t mess about when it comes to personal terms, and let’s get to a place where it starts to feel believable when he says he’s got the squad he needs. He worked under a stronger structure at Dortmund, we should start to move towards that model with the new CEO being Liverpool based and a proper figurehead. FSG have placed a lot of faith in Michael Edwards and his databases. I would like to see us taking a leaf out of Atletico’s book by putting faith back into scouting.
Let’s stop messing around with the Anfield Road End, particularly given that ground redevelopment was literally the only reason we needed new owners 10 years ago, it’s a non-refundable promise.
Finally, let’s stop talking ourselves down and thinking of reasons why we can’t compete. Instead, let’s take a leaf from Juve’s book and get so relentlessly good at footy that all the other teams in the league just fold.
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Juventus, Atletico and Dortmund are run by people who love those clubs and are passionate for them to be successful on the field. We’re run by people who have no love for Liverpool or football in general. You can see FSG get excited when business opportunities arise, because business and baseball are their passion.
They’re not terrible owners, and people shouldn’t ignore the new stand and getting Klopp. But the fans have been patient with them and it’s time to start delivering some top drawer players, even if they demand very high wages. Otherwise FSG will have shown they’re ambition for the club on the field doesn’t match the fans and things will get hostile.
we’re the fifth richest club in a league with 3/4 CL places. that is quite the difference compared to dortmund and juventus, for example. that’s not to say fsg hasn’t made mistakes, they clearly have.
The simplistic “5th richest in league” with 4 CL places doesn’t explain why we keep finishing below the “6th richest in league” since FSG took over.
Once we have finished above Tottenham under FSG.
Given its a “long term” project we can only review the rate of progress since FSG arrived. Basically none. We are still a 6/7th placed club trying to compete for 4th.
No reason to expect this summer to be different to any past summer, or next season to be any different to this then. £30M total budget.
Some points I’d make on this would be similar to yours, apologies for repeating anything.
I believe this summer is huge for FSG. Currently, we can see their reign however we want to interpret it. For every fan that say’s their tenure has been a disgrace we can find more who think they’ve been brilliant. Equally, some are in between.
Some will rightfully say they’ve finally built a fantastic new stand, others will think they benefit as much as anyone for it and more will say it means little in terms of ambition if they don’t do the Annie Road.
With managers and board/ backroom staff most will see a steady progression of better appointments which has potentially got us a good off the field team. Some will acknowledge mistakes have certainly been made but that’s the nature of life, let alone business.
With recruiting players, again it can be looked at from either side. Comolli sacked for the transfer committee, the transfer committee seemingly now playing second fiddle to Klopp but Edwards still having a big say in things. The summer will show that to be either a positive progression or a sign of FSG imposing a wrong path on the club.
On players, we’ve seen different approaches which they’ve tried to adapt to make better. We saw value replaced by Premiership proven and £7m young foreigners being replaced by £20m-£30m players in their mid twenties. Then Klopp took over and had a different vision which has worked well in the past.
Off the pitch, FSG like to remain quiet. Some will understand that given the nature of Liverpool fans and how they like to regurgitate things said in the past. Some will see it as owners who are not engaged. Again, mistakes have been made with tickets and Mighty Red but things have also been swiftly reversed and so again, opinions can be divided there.
So, my point is this – it’s difficult to say one way or the other how FSG have done. It’s subjective to a large extent. Two different people can take 2 arguments about them and come up with different opinions and neither is necessarily so far wrong. But, and here’s the point of my comment. Yes, every summer we say this is the most important summer but for me this really is everything. Not just because it’s current but because of the variables.
Firstly, FSG have been here 7 years just after the summer. Klopp has been here not far off 2 seasons come the summer. As with everything it’s again subjective but it can be regarded as ‘fair’ that Klopp was given time to evaluate what he has if he wants to build properly. We can’t use excuses about the club was in this shape or that shape when they bought us anymore. It was 7 years ago. They’ve had enough time. Circumstances have perhaps put us back a bit at times but now we have Klopp and he’s been here long enough to really start his building.
Other huge factors are the positive net spend last summer and the new tv money. We all know we have a big kitty. We can’t use excuses about inheriting debt etc. They’re over now. The whole learning curve is over too. There’s no excuse.
Then, we have a team that despite our frustrations with them we all know this team is good. We all know we’re close. Not close enough but close and the reason we’re not close enough is simple. We lack depth. That’s all.
When everything is thrown into the pot we need a big summer. The money is there. The team is nearly there. The backroom is in place. The club off the field is in good shape. We just need a little push. We need to spend £100m+ net plus outgoings which should give us around £130 gross. Let’s say around £150m. I’m sure people are sick of seeing my comments on how it’s possible but I’ll summarise one more time. We break even every year now after spending £30m net (unless we’ve sacked a manager). The tv money is around £40m extra. We had a positive net spend last summer. Take those 2 figures x 2 and I’m convinced we could break even at £140m net. We may even get top 4 and the CL but if we don’t it’s even more reason to invest.
The time is now!!! Everything is in place for a show of ambition. All the variables stack up. If they do as I think they will then their tenure has to be looked at favourably. If they don’t then all hell has to break loose. We won’t have many to sell. Perhaps £30 or £40m recouped from Sakho / Lazar, 5 £3m players perhaps. £30m net won’t cut it. It’s now or never. We need to show ambition or just tread water which none of us want. There’s never been a summer so clear cut under them. There’s always been pro’s and cons, mostly regarding managers in different stages of their tenure or the clubs finances but this is the one. There’s only one white elephant in the room and that’s the quality of the recruitment. If we get that right too (Gini, Mane and Matip were a good start and can give us hope) the that sorry chapter of terrible recruitment could be over too. Ayre is gone, and much as I like him because a good friend of mine deals with him off the pitch and he’s done a lot for some important Liverpool charities, it’s also a chance to lay the ‘we can’t get deals done’ criticism to bed.
Apologies for the length of this, even by my standards, but this is the number one issue involving LFC at the minute. EVERYTHING rests on this summer for both the club going forward and for FSG. Get it wrong and we could go back to shades of 2009. Get it right and we could go back to shades of the 80’s. Get it right and we could be in almost complete harmony. Get it wrong and division will rear it’s ugly head. I truly believe we’re gonna get it right this time. Over to you FSG!!!!!!
Couldn’t agree more. In particular, I don’t believe you can interpret the spend figure from last summer until we see what happens this summer. Spend large and we can go with ‘put it down to some great work on sales, and keeping it for this year.’ Spend small and it is time to sell.
In terms of the comment below “you cannot be in the top-10 of world’s richest clubs list and not win titles, trophies and earn CL place” that overlooks that we are the 5th richest club in the Prem. I can’t even name the 5th richest club in Spain, Italy and Germany. And comparisons with Juventus are entirely meaningless.
Spot on! You cannot be in the top-10 of world’s richest clubs list and not win titles, trophies and earn CL place. FSG should realize LFC supporters that witnessed the glorious years are aging and you cannot win new supporters (with the spending power) unless you win titles, trophies and play in prestigious competitions. So, if they are good businessmen, they should realize the LFC brand is under threat if the club cannot deliver on the pitch.
Almost all key positions (GK, CB, LB, DM, DLP, WF & CF) require upgrades since Reina, Hyppia, Carra, Masch, Alonso, Stevie, Suarez were never replaced and LB and WF (especially, left-footed wide players) remain usual problem positions for the club. Fix those with real qualities (not a collection of averages) and we can consider FSG serious owners vested in our future!
Yep, this summer is the big test.
Jurgen’s on record as saying he wants between “2 and 6 players”. Putting aside the (deliberate?) vagueness of that quote the important point is not the actual number, but the quality of the new arrivals. I reckon we need the 6 rather than the 2 though. Not necessarily starters every week, but players the manager can put in and know the team isn’t weakened to any real degree, or who can come on for 20 minutes at the end of a game and strengthen us because they’re as good as the one they’re replacing and, by definition, fresher.
So, a keeper, a left back, centre half, centre mid, a wide player and a striker. As well as some of the fringe players and loanees, out go Migs, Moreno, Leiva, Sturridge and possibly Can. Provided we qualify for Europe that’ll still leave some headroom for some of the best young players to get game time.
If FSG are serious they’ll have started the planning for this some time ago and be prepared to shell out the thick end of £130-150 million net. Anything less and we’re destined for a long period in the doldrums. As Robin Crimes says “Over to you FSG”
I’d certainly sooner have 2 guaranteed first team quality players than 6 “will they wont they” squad reinforcements mind.
“If FSG are serious they’ll have started the planning for this some time ago and be prepared to shell out the thick end of £130-150 million net.”
Which would be against Premier League and FFP financial rules.
Stephen. You seem to be making this point every week. Can you explain it?
I can’t see how it’s against FFP or PL rules.
FFP Based on a 3 year accounting period.
Last 3 accounts they broke even except for the £20m loss from sacking Rodgers.
So, the £20m loss can be put down to a 1 off.
In that time they spent £86m net on players i.e. £29m net average a season.
This year and last year the wages have gone up by £40m.
Half of that will be covered by the increase in matchday revenue from the new stand alone.
P.s The owners won’t take their loan repayment out in a way which damages our figures.
The other half of that £40m will come from revenue growth. Liverpool’s growth has been £55m in the last 2 accounts and there’s reasons for last years lesser growth. Sponsorships coming to an end and the drop in revenue from building the new stand. With new deals in place not accounted for in the last accounts Liverpool’s top line will rise this season and next aside from tv money. That’s not in doubt.
Some estimates put the tv money at £50m extra. I’m erring on caution at £40m. As we didn’t spend anything on transfers last season we must surely be £40m up on tv over previous seasons and have it in the bank. We must have the £29m net average spend. Plus we made £5m last season. In the summer we can have the £70m from last season and the £70m from the coming season and our accounts won’t show a loss in May 2018 for the previous years accounting. In the last 3 years we show a £20m loss. That’s within FFP’s 30m Euro loss over the 3 years. The loan the owners put in for the stand can be manipulated as direct investment from the owners making the 30m Euro loss all above board.
I absolutely don’t see how you think we can fail on FFP based on the figures you pulled from the comment.
Regarding the PL. We’re fine on their rules too. I’m presuming you mean the wage law. If so, teams are allowed to increase it £7m per season unless they can show growth in revenue from non-tv money, hence both Arsenal and Chelsea being well over what the rule said. Well, with the new stand alone we can show growth of £20m and that’s why Liverpool’s wages have grown well above the caps without sanction. Our overall revenue covers it too since the 12/13 cutoff. We’re not in danger of falling foul to this PL wage rule. If we buy 5 very good player this summer they’ll need wages but Sturridge £6.5m, sakho £3.9m and Lucas £4.16m a year will be off the books and free up £260k a week in wages.
Look Stephen – I’d very much appreciate if you tell me why I’m wrong here. The reason being, this is a crucial summer for LFC. As I’ve said in my comment all the stars are aligned for the first time. This is the season we need to kick on. After last years no spend I think we can. There were well placed rumours last year that Klopp had £100m to spend. If we fail to buy the 5 key players we all want then I believe questions will be asked big time. If we do then I believe the Annie Road aside, no one can complain about FSG and we have to accept them as good owners. It’s a critical summer. If us fans have it wrong in our hopes I think you should inform us now. I respect your knowledge on Twitter which is why I’m not dismissing your assertion but come on – tell us how we break the rules spending over £100m net or we’re gonna demand the spend and it’ll lead to an inharmonious atmosphere. Put the word out why we can’t if you think we can’t. Thanks in advance.
Oh but Adam, FSG haven’t bankrupted us like the last owners therefore they are brilliant.
Also, we already have at 11 players – signing a good player would mean someone missing out. What would be the first 11? (everyone knows that stays the same all season)… plus injuries and suspensions are so rare.
Perfectly summed up Adam. I’m as frustrated as you. Great article.
I think we should expect a big summer this year, but then I suspect my view of what would constitute a big summer is different to some people.
We should expect that FSG will authorise Edwards and Klopp to spend the money allowed by our revenue levels on player purchases and salaries to strengthen the team according to Klopps requirements. We shouldn’t expect them to authorise expenditure above a level supported by our accounts. That should be their role in this. Responsibility for a “big summer” then rests with Edwards, Klopp and rest of the recruitment team.
Fans can name a arbitrary figure for net spend, that they consider to be a big summer, but we don’t know what the accounts will support. Robin has had a stab at an estimate above, and he might be right, but I think we will need to settle for a lower figure.
When it comes to player transfers the club needs to consider both transfer fee and salary. Big net spend on players who can make an immediate impact on the first team, will mean substantial hike in salary costs. We can see from the 2015/2016 accounts that we are already running a bit hot for salaries, outspending City and Arsenal (although some non-playing salary costs at City are transferred to other parts of the City group, so I suspect there actual salary spend like for like was probably just ahead of ours.)
I don’t think we should get too excited about the extra riches available from TV deals. Because this money is spread pretty evenly across all the teams, it doesn’t give us a competitive advantage against out domestic rivals. In fact it is a leveler versus some of the smaller teams, allowing other teams to compete on transfer and salary with the top 6, and making it possibly even more important to drive higher match day and commercial revenue to maintain an advantage. The bigger TV deals have an inflationary impact driving up salaries and transfer fees across the board. In the end the majority of the increase will find its way in to the players pockets and the pockets of their agents. Clubs will be paying more for the same.
Final point. If fans assessment of “big summer” is dependent on us landing a £70m/£200k player they will be disappointed. I expect we will be looking at more players with a similar profile to Firmino and Mane. Players still on a development path, not yet ready to command the very top salaries.
Hi Graeme
I’m not expecting us to land any £70m players on 200k per week. I’ve always said I don’t believe Liverpool can attract them. For example, fans wanting us to sign Aubameyang are deluded imo. One league cup in 10 years won’t entice them. We need a forward of some description though £35m, a midfielder £25m +, a centre back £20m, and a left back £20m. We then need at least 2 more £15m players for the squad. Ok, very rough figures but I agree, we need a few more Firmino’s and Mane’s. They don’t come for less than £20m or their quality has to be questioned or to put it more accurately, they’re another gamble. I’d expect wages for these players to start on around £100k a week. It’s the only way we can get proven players.
The thing is, if my figures are anywhere near right then I don’t expect us to spend £80m every season. After this initial build, needed as a result of clear deficiencies in the squad, I’d be quite happy if we went back down to a £45m net spend. The difference would cover wages. The tv money is real. Most put it at an extra £50m a season for LFC. This season we haven’t spent it or our usual net spend. I don’t agree it’s a leveller though for 2 reasons. Firstly, Everton and Stoke can’t attract the same players as we do. We can’t attract the very best and they can’t attract the next best as we can. Secondly, they won’t be able to offer them big wages. The PL rules had a cut off in 2012/13 where wage bills were noted and rules set in place that says you can’t increase your wages as a result of the tv money (currently a £7m increase is permitted a season, £4m prior to this). You can though, if you can prove it’s from increased revenue elsewhere. Lfc can do that because our ‘brand’ brings in far more, plus we have the new stand money. Personally, I think the new tv money cements the hold of the top 4 or 6.
Going back to what will be classed as a big summer, when you look at what we can sell, Sturridge (£12m?, Lucas £3m?, Sakho £12m? and Markovic £6m?) then it’s in the region of £30-£35m. It buys us a midfielder. We absolutely have to have a new forward, a new centre half and a left back. Even those 3 have to cost around £70m. Do we buy a new keeper? Do we improve right back or cover for right back (I don’t think we will and probably don’t need to but..). Ideally, we’d buy a couple more cheaper players too because if we get in the CL, we will have injuries and this squad needs at least 6 more decent players.
We’re already over well over £100m gross on my conservative estimates of players needed. In my figures we lose Sturridge and Lucas. Sakho less so but even so but we need squad depth let alone strengthening 2 or 3 first team players. My point is £60m net is not gonna cut it. Klopp is a new manager. New managers are backed. He wasn’t necessarily backed in the summer for a rebuild as he lost a lot of players making his squad thin (his choice, I’m sure). £60m net would equate to £30m a season (after not spending last summer). With the extra £40/£50m tv money it’s simply not gonna wash. In saying all that, I fully believe we will spend +£100m net this summer. I think you’ll be surprised but I also think you’re deliberately laying your stall out low because you appreciate FSG and don’t want the trouble that will result from a £60m spend. That’s not meant in a derogatory sense Graeme. Merely offering my thought process.
Honestly, it’s the blind talking to the blind when it’s Liverpool supporters.
Under these owners we had a genuine title challenge in 4 years while losing money. Would Daniel Levy had operated us that way or would he, like most business people have cut back our spending to stem the losses? Think about it.
Then straight after that challenge made with a lot of their purchases, that bona fide challenging team gets ripped apart by forced sales, injury or Gerrard being found out in his QB position. Was that really their fault?
So now we are rebuilding again except now we have Citeh joining PSG in paying huge amounts for youngsters who haven’t done anything yet rather than big money for proven talents. And we’ve just announced a loss, the 4th in 6 years.
So stop hiding behind words like ambition and do a write up on the accounts so we don’t have to read Robin’s “nonsense with numbers” series. Money is a real thing unless you own oil wells. It means building and that isn’t a one summer exercise, it’s not a house.
Fortunately for us we did a good job of house keeping last summer that will create breathing space for wages at least as a chunk of the transfer budget would have been taken up by the losses, and we’ve now entered the new TV money era.
That means Klopp’s rebuilding process can continue hopefully to give us more challenges at the top level in this 2nd 4 year period.
A big difference for the club should we now make champions league is not only a good manager, but because of the work FSG have done, the extra money from CL footy nominally puts us in the same ball park as the others bar Utd.
Of course in reality the others have bottomless pockets and employ various schemes to deal with financing, but finally we might not still be the 5th richest club in the league by then. Even if it’s only nominally.
So raise a glass to the 2nd rebuild and appreciate it for what it really is.
We’ve had 1 good season because Suarez was world class. We haven’t finished inside the top 6 any other time. Don’t try and dress this is up as a great building process. It’s been a disaster. We’ve punched well below our weight with our 8th place finishes.
You make out we’ve had bad luck. Let’s remember why that successful team broke up. Sterling wasn’t offered a new contract and by the time we got round to it he’d decided we were a shambolic club and was desperate to jump ship. One of his issues was once we sold Suarez and got good money for him we bought Mario and Lambert. It was that decision that completely sent us backwards. When Sturridge got injured who did we have to play? How you can put a positive spin on that is beyond me.
City (Citeh, Jesus mate, how old are you? 12?) show ambition. That’s why they’ve won 2 titles, the FA Cup, the League Cup and reached a CL semi in the time FSG have owned us and in the time we’ve won a League Cup needing pens to beat a Championship side.
Another loss? They’re clearly not doing that well in terms of winning and after the club having 2 years of not making a loss we’ve gone backwards in the accounts too. What do they actually do that’s good? 2nd 4 year period? We were told we’d be winning within 5 years. Well, it’s nearly 7 years and we finished 8th. Is this the latest excuse? 2nd 4 year period, lol. “So raise a glass to the 2nd rebuild and appreciate it for what it really is” .Do one mate, not interested. I want to win stuff not talk 4 years down the line. It’s been 7 years.
Regarding the nonsense numbers, come back when the accounts are realised and tell me that. The accounts will show an astronomical rise in revenue for this season. It’s quite simple, we need to invest it in the squad. The difference between me and you is I support the team and want to see them do well. You’re more interested in the owners and will look for any excuse to defend them from the obvious. 2nd 4 year period, haha. Whatever mate.
The difference between you and me mate is you talk utter crap. that’s the long and short of it. Go around telling people to do one? What are you, 14? Come back when you can actually make some sense.
What exactly is “when the accounts are realised”? They’re there at companies house, available to read at a click of a button – can you manage clicking a button? Reading them might be a bit tricky for you I guess, see if you can find a 9 year old to help you.