A LOT of Liverpool fans seem to think things are pretty bleak at the moment, but I’m an optimist so here’s why I think the outlook might be sunnier than it first appears.
THE FOOTBALL
Liverpool have had a poor, poor season. Yet we’ve reached two semi finals and ought to really finish fifth in the league (having ought to have arguably qualified for the Champions League — it’s our own fault we haven’t). You can’t do that unless your footballers can play football. And these footballers can play football.
When Xabi Alonso left the club, we suffered for far too long as a result because we couldn’t get the ball from back to front in any kind of joined up way. We couldn’t get the ball to the players who could hurt opposing sides quickly enough to expose them at the back. Everything had relied on him to a greater extent than most people realised and so we played like a pub team for an extended period of time.
You might think we’ve played like a pub team this season, but it’s been the basics that have let us down: concentration, defensive organisation, and a lack of penetration up front (something we had in abundance last year). What we do have is a squad of players who can play football, and that’s down to the direction of travel set at the club since Hodgson departed.
We grow players from within who can pass a ball and find space. We grow and buy players who can turn on a ball, and play under pressure. We can get the ball from back to front. Sure, it get a little bogged down when Coutinho gets singled out for special attention, but that’s down to trust and fear as much as anything else.
The problem, again, is we have is a chronic lack of penetration. Lose that penetration at any time and you’ll look like a blunt instrument. Lose it after a season like last season, with goals in triple figures, and you’ll feel emasculated, both in the stands and on the park.
We had a spell mid season when the squad clicked, and at times it played with tempo and imposed its football on some of the best sides in the league. We’d really have a problem if we didn’t have that foundation to build upon. As it stands, if we buy the right strikers, things will change. And they will change — last season is the evidence — the supporting cast can do the job just fine, and to an increasing extent.
BANGS FOR BUCKS
Five years ago, the club added a number of ageing journeyman players to a squad choc full of ageing pros, most of whom were on big fat contracts (many negotiated by one Christian Purslow). At the time, people speculated about how ‘Moneyball’ might manifest itself at Liverpool FC. Here’s how. They don’t do those any more (not as a rule, any road).
Liverpool at that time were fifth in the domestic wages league, but sadly punching well below their weight, due to a lack of focus on getting value from their players’ contracts. The squad was bloated with ‘assets’ (horrible word, but you can sell a player, so there you go) we were paying way more than market value for (both in fees and in salaries). Fast forward five years…
Not everyone’s a fan of stats. I am. Dan Kennett, on FSG’s takeover of the club, wrote a seminal article called “Fair Play For Fenway”, that accurately predicted how they would revamp the squad in contract value terms. For the first few seasons his foresight was uncanny — he’s currently writing an updated version too — we’ll get the latest picture then.
Last summer’s buys will skew things, but on balance, we get value for our ranking of 5th in the wages league now, and it means (in theory) that even after a season like that, we can punch at our par, and potentially above. Complain about the parsimonious negotiations with Sterling all you like — they’re happening for a reason. Barcelona did something similar in 2004 when Rijkaard took over and Laporta, Soriano and Beguiristain took hold of the purse strings.
Look what happened to them.
AUTHORITY
Whoever takes the helm next season (it might be Brendan, it might not — we’ve all seen the ITK updates on both sides, and not all of them can be right), they’ll have a clean slate in terms of authority.
That’s arguably not been the case at any point during this millenium to date for a Liverpool manager. We’ve had sacred cows in our squad, wonderful men and wonderful club servants all, but the kinds of players who managers tiptoe around in discussions with the media, contract negotiations, European squad selections, and in-game substitutions.
Gerrard will always be a collossus, and yes, the club will have lost its Scouse backbone — its heartbeat. But the flip side of that is that the manager (whoever that is) can now genuinely assert his authority on the squad, and shape it to his will without compromise. A manager will always be a little half-cocked without authority — Ferguson sold many a player who could still do a job for that very reason — and Liverpool should benefit if the manager (whoever he is) has genuine vision.
EWING THEORY
Yes, we’ve lost senior players, and yes, we’ve lost indomitable characters in recent seasons — two of the most famously indomitable characters in the game in fact. But ask a primatologist what happens when a troupe of gorrillas loses its leader. We’re just monkeys, all of us — we kid ourselves we’re sophisticated, but we’re not so refined really
Lose the king pin and the rest will naturally assert themselves to fill the void that’s left. As humans, and as primates, we can’t operate without that resettlement. The manager should take the opportunity to impose himself in the gap that’s left, but the captain and others within the squad should also grow almost instantly to fill the gap.
Someone reminded me the other day on Twitter that this phenomenon was widely known in sport as ‘The Ewing Effect’. It’s worth a Google, I’d suggest. The phenomenon of how sometimes a team sometimes becomes inexplicably better when its star man leaves.
SPINES, SYSTEMS AND SPACING
This is a continuation of the Ewing Theory theme, of course, but this part is predictable. Gerrard always brought with him an inherent conundrum. We played arguably our best football under Rafa when he was moved out of the centre of midfield and moved wide right in the 4-2-3-1, or off Torres in 08-09. He was free, and he was devastating.
Of course, at other times he proved himself capable of discipline and culture at the base of midfield, and of marauding drive and aggression and explosive quality in the engine room alongside Alonso. But there was always the worry that in his preferred slot in the middle, against cannier sides, he’d get caught ahead of play, and that as a result, the spine of the side would get out of kilter, the players stretched too far from front to back, and a Cazorla or a Weimann or a Bolasie would sneak up and in between the lines and hurt the shit out of us on the break.
Gerrard was consistently many things, and was very difficult to leave out of the side, but a consistent controller he was not. He didn’t consistently regulate the shape of the side, he didn’t always consider the shape of the unit as a whole, and he wasn’t always aware enough of the worry in behind. We’ve a chance to address that now.
Put that together with everything else: the footballing capacity, the scope for younger players to assert their testosterone-laden credentials, the scope for a manager to apply his undiluted, unfettered tactical vision, and a contractual platform that (for the most part) will see us recoup most of the money we outlay on players over the next five years for reinvestment, and we’ve a platform to build upon.
Of course, it all hinges on two things: the right manager with the right vision, and the right moves in the transfer market to address the penetration issue, and put the pep back in our step.
Over to you, FSG.
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Pics: David Rawcliffe-Propaganda-Photo
“As it stands, if we buy the right strikers, things will change.”
A task seemingly impossible for this manager and/or transfer committee.
Yet they bought Sturridge.
The same Sturridge that’s been injured all season and were not likely to see back until Nov. That Sturridge. What about the Balotelli, Aspas, Borini, Lambert, Yesil they bought too.
Yesil has been hurt a lot too. He’s looking pretty good for the U-21’s lately. Hopefully he’s given a chance to make the squad in preseason.
Jen Chang bought Yesil. Aspas was actually a decent profile – he just didn’t work out. Balotelli is the problem signing, but they wanted to buy Sanchez. They wanted to buy Salah, Konoplyanka, Mkhtaryan, Costa, Willian, Sanchez. All good profiles in terms of movement and goal return. It’s reductive all this. Ayre is the problem.
I think the reason we’re fifth is more to do with how shit this league really is, Man Utd have been shit for most the season and yet they’re gonna be 4th. Loads of sides down the bottom are no better than championship level
Which makes it all the more frustrating about this season, it was our opportunity to capitalize and cement ourselves in the top 4 and basically we’ve blown it by our own incompetence, worst start to a season for decades, terrible transfers, etc
“on balance, we get value for our ranking of 5th in the wages league now”
Tired of this fifth is par bollocks. Mancs have been rubbish this term, we should be finishing above the standard they’ve played at. Just we’ve been more crap than they have.
Southampton might finish above us if we lose at Stoke and their wages are a third of what ours are, them being 16th in the so called wages league.
Where do Ludogorets and Basle come in the wages league by the way ?
I suppose when the manager himself is saying fifth is par then that is going to stick.
It bothers on Hodgson like behaviour, I’d level the blame on that Tomkins article as well. All completely missing the actual point
Of course we aren’t as rich as others around, of course we can’t spend as much, then that means it requires loads of competence by those within this club to be able to get us punching above our weight. Arsenal has been punching above their weight and Manc below for a few seasons, yet their wage bill’s been hugely different, what’s the difference between the two? Staff competence, that’s what
If those involved at the club aren’t confident they’re able to get a united vision going, have the necessary skill set possible to have us performing the very best or even above ourselves then quite frankly they have no business being employed by this football club. It’s just excuses made by the manager to justify his own below par performance levels this season
We have spent 330 million since FSG arrived, our transfers have been terrible, we’ve been littered with utter incompetence off the field for a long long time. So instead of bsing that we’re about par, maybe they should polish the fuck up and learn to perform even to a normal standard first
Again, did you see the big where I said we should have done better than 5th?
Shoulda, woulda, coulda. If my granny had balls she’d be my granda!!
When it really matters we continually fuck up then someone comes along with the excuse!!
Im sick of the ifs and buts!
How about we just get it fucking right for once and if we don’t, call it for what it is….a fuck up?!
If you read around the web into the stats and theory behind the relationship between average starting 11 value/net transfer spend/wages, you’ll see that aberrations do occur from time to time (us last season, Southampton, etc.) and that once you get below 10th position, the relationship between spend and league position becomes much less defined.
We should be upset about points thrown away and periods of poor, uninspired play. We should be upset about transfer dealings. We should walk into every match expecting and believing that we can win it. But we should also temper these expectations with reality, rather than losing sight of that and trying to throw out the baby with the bathwater.
Did you see the bit where I say we should have gone higher than fifth? ;)
Well said Roy. Some essential positivity to contextualise the malaise over LFC fandom
No, I’m not buying ‘5th is par’ either.
Man U have dropped 11 of their last 15 points, but they’re still 7 points ahead of us.
In that run we’ve dropped 10 points, including defeats to Hull and Palace and a draw with West Brom. So they’ve given us every opportunity to catch them with a run of winnable games and we’ve fucked it up. Nothing to do with ‘par’.
Was it ‘par’ at Wembley against Villa? Bollocks was it was.
Even in this poor season in the last few weeks we’ve had plenty of chances to come good at the end and due to bad decisions and lack of character we’ve failed. Rodgers and the players should have done better with the hand they were dealt.
You can’t compare any one result, positive or negative, that we’ve had this season and say it somehow proves we should finish elsewhere. Perhaps instead of the tepid performance against CP this past weekend we should have won and instead lost a match this year that we ended up scraping on 1-0. Maybe we should have beaten AV (I agree, we should have) but not have had that great post Christmas unbeaten streak.
The whole “par theory” or whatever you want to call it doesn’t pretend to know how an individual match should turn out; all it does is estimate where a team is likely to finish the season. And in that regard, it predicts quite accurately where we are. Doesn’t mean we should be happy about it, but it does help us to focus our attention on how we can best improve rather than simply shouting that we should sack Rodgers or spend 60 million on one player etc. etc.
Barcelona’s fortunes were not transformed by a pruning of their wage bill: they got lucky in the transfer market. Laporta had promised to sign Beckham. Beckham chose Madrid. Laporta had to pacify the fans. So Barca took a gamble on a player they didn’t fancy: Ronaldinho.
I’d argue FSG are unlikely to gamble big money on anyone.
Their ability to sign players who made a crucial difference was down to them renegotiating credit lines and doing the exact same thing Liverpool has since FSG came in with player contracts. There’s no chance of signing them without first doing that, otherwise you end up with hard core debt problems of the kind they had, and you operate with shackles on.
And they signed Ronaldinho, and then when they’d consolidated the following summer, they signed Marquez, Giuly, Deco and Eto’o. Ronaldinho was the big difference, but it was a broader project well executed.
Your point is what? That we’re another 5 years away? I’m curious what your expectations are, exactly.
To keep growing and building to a point where we’re where the top clubs in Europe are. It takes time and you have to ride out the blips and keep working.
The problem with that Hendo is two fold :
1. We’re not growing. The squad is totally shorn of leadership, desire, drive, determination and bottle. Rodgers sacked off anyone who isn’t a spineless automaton. The team needs more rebuilding now than when he got here. Anyone at the match can see half the team looking to the bench every 5 minutes for where they should be and what they should be doing.
2. Top club in Europe is going to be a problem under this manager. He is clearly out of his depth when it came to Ludogorets and Basle and threw the towel in before we even got on the pitch against Real.
Roy, I rewatched the barca doc you linked. My memory of it was flawed. But the Ronaldinho transfer is pertinent. According to the doc…
He was their 2nd target after Beckham.
They were up against the Mancs and Madrid.
So…
They offered 30m, when they thought they could’ve got him for 25m.
Their good contacts in Brazil (Roselli?) ultimately secured the deal.
How can we learn from this?
How long though? Are you saying we should give Rodgers another 5 years? Do you think we should make the final four of the Champions League in five years? Would you jettison Rodgers if we don’t make the top four next season?
It’d be great if people would shut up about par. The article makes the point that we’ve a platform that lets us reach above it – that’s the whole fucking point, but people don’t read the actual words.
I do. I want to know when we’ll be able to bring in quality. To take a chance on someone proven instead of always going for youngsters.
Like we did through the last six decades you mean?
Great piece Roy. Thanks – I was starting to believe I was alone in not thinking it was the end of the world….
Just joking but love the synonyms for the word ‘parsimonious’. Less impressive words but perhaps more descriptive of the contract negotiations and overall FSG approach!
‘mean, miserly, niggardly, close-fisted, penny-pinching, cheese-paring, ungenerous, penurious, illiberal, close, grasping, Scrooge-like, stinting, sparing, frugal’.
Whilst agreeing with the point you make about Barca The Barca documentary also illustrates the importance of players being key irrespective of sensible contract negotiations, budgets or the pursuit of unpolished gems. Whilst accepting that the overall point is correct Barca’s revival that season was down to the purchase of Edgar Davids on loan in the Christmas window. Without this, Champions league football would probably not have followed and the later success. I doubt Edgar came for peanuts. Players are the things that matter in football clubs. I like and appreciate stats but stats don’t play on a football pitch. Neither do contracts. Its a place where the quantified make unbelievable and unquantifiable actions irrespective of age or profile. Will they be prepared to pay when necessary for that important and perhaps important player irrespective of whether it suits financially at that time? Its an unanswered question.
The authority suggestion is open to scrutiny. Of course you could be right Roy but my initial question is this. In three years why have you not asserted authority? Of course big players carry weight and influence but they can only ever do it on your terms. The best thing Rafa ever did was make Gerrard just a player. Plus, when a top player leaves (as you identify), at every level of football a player will get all excited with themselves (sometimes resulting in positive benefits) but quite often negatively in their efforts to become the next authority. There is always someone pushing you so they can excel/control their game and environment. Its constantly evolving. Therefore you can never have full control on this until you accept and deal with issues/personalities. Its surely part of the job description whether its a legend, current player or a new signing. His time to do this was/has been every day at work. Personally i think he has done that okay. He has fallen out with a few which means that he challenged a few as well. In future, its his job, and the very senior players (of which there are few) to sort out and control those group dynamics.I would suggest that an undergraduate sports degree student should seek to explain how Liverpool will evolve in the first three months of the season in relation to group dynamics. Very interesting and vital for where that dressing room goes.
Agree with all your points on Gerrard. Age has diluted but not made his skills or energy redundant. He always was a liability at times in a very central role until last year when it was the key to our attacking. We controlled the ball though or the ball controlled the counter attack. The villa goal (which I KNOW you have not discussed is an absolute catalogue of errors from a number of players ending with Lovern marking the ball boy!)
Your final paragraph is obviously key. Its always about the manager and the ability to recruit the best players. I dont care how much you do that for whether its for a £1 or £50 million. They do though and i fully respect how they want to do it until evidence suggests that its not working. Personally do not feel we are at that point yet. A couple of players to a team can transform a team but its not as simple as adding a couple of strikers and off we go. If i remember for at least 6 games last year we struggled to get LS scoring as he was played out wide. It did not suit him. Aside of fitness DS struggled this year as he was playing on his own. DS needs a partner as he likes to work off the space. I have a firm suspicion (in fact i am pretty sure this is correct) that DS dislikes playing up front on his own as well so mentally he is gone in that role when he is played there. He touches the ball too much in the middle third to play that role consistently. As you identify this squad should have finished higher. I agree Yes, they were missing things but equally the resources were not used well enough. Players must take responsibility for this also. They are good enough but did not do enough to show this.
All for optimism Roy but not at the expense of realism. (At the risk of another stand off at the O.K Corral i am not suggesting you are not being realistic!!!). Its just that I cant sit here and be wildly optimistic when analyzing properly, however, and crucially i believe that LFC will win every game that it ever plays! That should be the basis of our fandom surely?! for me, as a fan, The next game is the only thing that matters. I am very much in the Sepp Herberger camp for the reality of football. The game proves everything. The platform you speak off is standing on a cliff for me. It could go either way but for me there is much to prove EVEN for our best players! This includes Hedenrson, Can, Skirtel, Mignolet, Sterling, Sturridge. Their ability is not in doubt but there capability to do it against top teams, top players and without the players who have left is still open to question. Equally their mental capacity to do this with consistency is still open to debate. I am very hopeful that they can. I believe that with the right additions though and you can make progress easily because we do pass the ball well, we do have good players and we have some okay defenders (not many though). Jesus, the back players are an article in themselves. The manager (who i want to stay (but stop patting himself on the back) has to continue to evolve. We are simply to easy to play through. Too much space. That’s great when you are picking off poorer teams but against better teams we will struggle. He can work with good attacking players though and has a vision of attacking play. Is that enough long term? the next game, and the one after will find out. Despite me saying this i still think in England you do not have to defend really well to achieve. Its not like 2004- 2009.
Anyway, its opens discussion which is the point no doubt. Cheers for writing Roy.
If Basil Fawlty was a red…
“Don’t mention the par.”
Enjoyed that, Roy. Tons of sense, but then Karl and Ian have done the same from slightly different perspectives in their pieces. Suppose that’s what makes it such a confusing time just now and that’d be the case even if Steven wasn’t going. Just adds to the heightened uncertainty and emotion as if they need supplementing at the best of times.
Also, Luis Garcia sighting at 55:00 of that Barca doc you linked. Laporta and his mates had a ‘mare getting shut of him that summer although something tells me they probably got over it in the long run. Wonder what the lad went on to…
Truth is, much as it feels like we’re losing a lot with Gerrard going I’m excited about the future and intrigued as to how it will play out.
I find it incredible people can look beyond this season’s striker issues. It’s so clear. As you say, last season is the proof. What worries me though is if Sterling goes this year and what if Coutinho gets hounded by one of the Spanish giants next summer as will probably happen. If in 12 months we’ve lost both then we’ve lost 60% of what made us tick last season and 80% if Sturridge is still in a similar place to now. I know that’s ultra negative but also, I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility. I know others come in and it starts again but we’re then relying on luck (to an extent) in the transfer market (similar to when we bought Coutinho). Don’t get me wrong, this is borne out of a vision I have that players will step up and excel in place of Gerrard, the likes of Markovic and Lallana will step up to the next level, Sturridge will return with his problems behind him and a decent strike partner alongside him to add to Sterling, Coutinho and Henderson. That way we challenge for the league, not 4th. Years of under achieving has made me bastard pragmatic and optimism seems to get tempered by a fear that it’ll go wrong.
I’ve also been an advocate of FSG’s vision too. That’s wavered a bit recently. I’d like to see some tweeks to their policy. The result of this hard ball with Sterling will mean he’ll go. For the sake of £2.5m a year it doesn’t make sense (**the difference between £100k and £150k). We can afford it and their vision is ultimately about success so we should be tying him down. I actually think he’ll go due to his ambitions but FSG will come under fire if he does.
I think FSG will be aware of the importance of strikers now and will take steps to rectify this situation during the summer. I worry about who we can attract under the T&C’s and with our current ranking but I still have this dream that we’ll pull off a master stroke.
Excellent points. Coutinho is evolving into the logical replacement for Iniesta. Not that I’m much of a scout.
At the minute it’s unfashionable to look at Rodgers preferred style, but it seems to me that his continued obsession with possession mitigates against the penetration we yearn for. When you are fucking around at the back your opponents are organising their defences. Suarez would not fit into a tikka takka regimen and saved us from a season of millions of passes and fuckall to show for it. Susrez goes abd we are back with Sterling running back and forth across the box with the serried ranks just waiting for us to lose possession. That’s Rodgers style, and he can’t see beyond it. The classic Torres goal of him chasing a Gerrard through ball is absolutely not the sort of football we will plan for if this man gets an extended tenure.
I don’t advocate the village football ‘get rid of it’ hatred of ball players, but 50 metre passes back to the keeper is not thrilling footer. It gets you 50 goals a season.
Yes, they bought Sturridge. But I think the Sturridge we got was not the Sturridge Rodgers expected. And thank Christ and Suarez for that!!!